Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted boundaries to include Democratic-leaning areas, transforming the district from a Trump +25 stronghold to an estimated Harris +12 advantage on the regular election map used for the November 2026 general after the June 2 top-two primary. Incumbent Republican Doug LaMalfa's January death opened the field to strong Democratic contenders like State Senator Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney, who lead in early fundraising; a February poll showed McGuire edging Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher 33%-30% in the special primary on the old map. Scenarios challenging this include a Republican topping the regular primary for a favorable top-two matchup, low Democratic turnout, or a major scandal hitting the frontrunner before the June 2 vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$22,046 Обс.
$22,046 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
6%
$22,046 Обс.
$22,046 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,173 Обс.
92%
Republican Party
$7,873 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted boundaries to include Democratic-leaning areas, transforming the district from a Trump +25 stronghold to an estimated Harris +12 advantage on the regular election map used for the November 2026 general after the June 2 top-two primary. Incumbent Republican Doug LaMalfa's January death opened the field to strong Democratic contenders like State Senator Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney, who lead in early fundraising; a February poll showed McGuire edging Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher 33%-30% in the special primary on the old map. Scenarios challenging this include a Republican topping the regular primary for a favorable top-two matchup, low Democratic turnout, or a major scandal hitting the frontrunner before the June 2 vote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$22,046Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted boundaries to include Democratic-leaning areas, transforming the district from a Trump +25 stronghold to an estimated Harris +12 advantage on the regular election map used for the November 2026 general after the June 2 top-two primary. Incumbent Republican Doug LaMalfa's January death opened the field to strong Democratic contenders like State Senator Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney, who lead in early fundraising; a February poll showed McGuire edging Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher 33%-30% in the special primary on the old map. Scenarios challenging this include a Republican topping the regular primary for a favorable top-two matchup, low Democratic turnout, or a major scandal hitting the frontrunner before the June 2 vote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$22,046Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by redistricting under Proposition 50 that shifted boundaries to include Democratic-leaning areas, transforming the district from a Trump +25 stronghold to an estimated Harris +12 advantage on the regular election map used for the November 2026 general after the June 2 top-two primary. Incumbent Republican Doug LaMalfa's January death opened the field to strong Democratic contenders like State Senator Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney, who lead in early fundraising; a February poll showed McGuire edging Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher 33%-30% in the special primary on the old map. Scenarios challenging this include a Republican topping the regular primary for a favorable top-two matchup, low Democratic turnout, or a major scandal hitting the frontrunner before the June 2 vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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