Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Austin's highest temperature on April 18, with implied probabilities peaking at 72-73°F (19%) amid a spread across mid-70s outcomes, driven by recent cold fronts and stormy weather through early April that have suppressed highs below the National Weather Service climatological normal of around 80°F. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models shows divergence due to variable cloud cover, residual low-level moisture from recent precipitation, and potential for partial clearing or lingering upper-level trough influence, differentiating cooler 72-75°F scenarios (higher cloudiness, northerly winds) from warmer 76-81°F possibilities (more sunshine, southerly flow). New model runs and observations over the next 24-48 hours will sharpen resolution as the date nears.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Austin on April 18?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 18?
72-73°F 19%
78-79°F 16%
76-77°F 15%
74-75°F 13%
69°F or below
4%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
13%
76-77°F
15%
78-79°F
16%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
72-73°F 19%
78-79°F 16%
76-77°F 15%
74-75°F 13%
69°F or below
4%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
13%
76-77°F
15%
78-79°F
16%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 16, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Austin's highest temperature on April 18, with implied probabilities peaking at 72-73°F (19%) amid a spread across mid-70s outcomes, driven by recent cold fronts and stormy weather through early April that have suppressed highs below the National Weather Service climatological normal of around 80°F. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models shows divergence due to variable cloud cover, residual low-level moisture from recent precipitation, and potential for partial clearing or lingering upper-level trough influence, differentiating cooler 72-75°F scenarios (higher cloudiness, northerly winds) from warmer 76-81°F possibilities (more sunshine, southerly flow). New model runs and observations over the next 24-48 hours will sharpen resolution as the date nears.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions