**Trader sentiment for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 9, 2026, centers on 36–37 °C because official forecasts and numerical model guidance converge in the mid-30s amid ongoing summer warmth.** AEMET’s 7-day forecast explicitly lists a maximum of 35 °C for Sunday, August 9, under cloudless skies with light southwesterly winds, while nearby days show 36–37 °C. Ensemble outputs from global models (including ECMWF) support similar values, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge that promotes strong daytime insolation, subsidence warming, and minimal cloud cover—conditions typical for Madrid’s continental climate in early August. A warmer-than-normal seasonal backdrop, driven by repeated warm-air advection from North Africa and elevated Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures, keeps the distribution skewed toward the upper end of the historical August range (average high ~34 °C). Market-implied odds therefore place the bulk of probability on 36 °C (46.5 %) and 37 °C (28 %), with lower tails for 35 °C or below and minimal weight above 38 °C, consistent with the narrow spread of current short-range guidance and limited scope for rapid intensification before the observation window closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月9日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月9日馬德裏氣溫最高？
37°C 46%
36°C 44%
35°C 7%
38°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
3%
35°C
7%
36°C
44%
37°C
46%
38°C
4%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
37°C 46%
36°C 44%
35°C 7%
38°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
32°C or below
$217 交易量
<1%
33°C
$277 交易量
1%
34°C
$258 交易量
3%
35°C
$571 交易量
7%
36°C
$442 交易量
44%
37°C
$901 交易量
46%
38°C
$239 交易量
4%
39°C
$454 交易量
<1%
40°C
$235 交易量
<1%
41°C
$223 交易量
<1%
42°C or higher
$238 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 9, 2026, centers on 36–37 °C because official forecasts and numerical model guidance converge in the mid-30s amid ongoing summer warmth.**
AEMET’s 7-day forecast explicitly lists a maximum of 35 °C for Sunday, August 9, under cloudless skies with light southwesterly winds, while nearby days show 36–37 °C. Ensemble outputs from global models (including ECMWF) support similar values, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge that promotes strong daytime insolation, subsidence warming, and minimal cloud cover—conditions typical for Madrid’s continental climate in early August.
A warmer-than-normal seasonal backdrop, driven by repeated warm-air advection from North Africa and elevated Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures, keeps the distribution skewed toward the upper end of the historical August range (average high ~34 °C). Market-implied odds therefore place the bulk of probability on 36 °C (46.5 %) and 37 °C (28 %), with lower tails for 35 °C or below and minimal weight above 38 °C, consistent with the narrow spread of current short-range guidance and limited scope for rapid intensification before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$4,055結束日期
2026-08-09市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 9, 2026, centers on 36–37 °C because official forecasts and numerical model guidance converge in the mid-30s amid ongoing summer warmth.**
AEMET’s 7-day forecast explicitly lists a maximum of 35 °C for Sunday, August 9, under cloudless skies with light southwesterly winds, while nearby days show 36–37 °C. Ensemble outputs from global models (including ECMWF) support similar values, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge that promotes strong daytime insolation, subsidence warming, and minimal cloud cover—conditions typical for Madrid’s continental climate in early August.
A warmer-than-normal seasonal backdrop, driven by repeated warm-air advection from North Africa and elevated Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures, keeps the distribution skewed toward the upper end of the historical August range (average high ~34 °C). Market-implied odds therefore place the bulk of probability on 36 °C (46.5 %) and 37 °C (28 %), with lower tails for 35 °C or below and minimal weight above 38 °C, consistent with the narrow spread of current short-range guidance and limited scope for rapid intensification before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,055結束日期
2026-08-09市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET**Trader sentiment for Madrid’s highest temperature on August 9, 2026, centers on 36–37 °C because official forecasts and numerical model guidance converge in the mid-30s amid ongoing summer warmth.** AEMET’s 7-day forecast explicitly lists a maximum of 35 °C for Sunday, August 9, under cloudless skies with light southwesterly winds, while nearby days show 36–37 °C. Ensemble outputs from global models (including ECMWF) support similar values, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge that promotes strong daytime insolation, subsidence warming, and minimal cloud cover—conditions typical for Madrid’s continental climate in early August. A warmer-than-normal seasonal backdrop, driven by repeated warm-air advection from North Africa and elevated Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures, keeps the distribution skewed toward the upper end of the historical August range (average high ~34 °C). Market-implied odds therefore place the bulk of probability on 36 °C (46.5 %) and 37 °C (28 %), with lower tails for 35 °C or below and minimal weight above 38 °C, consistent with the narrow spread of current short-range guidance and limited scope for rapid intensification before the observation window closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions