Current short-range forecasts from numerical weather models place Madrid's July 9 maximum near 38–39 °C, driven by a strong subtropical ridge promoting clear skies, strong insolation, and light winds that limit mixing. Historical July averages hover around 32–34 °C, but recent days have already reached 37–39 °C amid the same synoptic pattern, pushing the distribution of possible peaks toward the upper end of climatology. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak heating accounts for the tight contest between 38 °C and 39 °C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply above 40 °C absent an unexpected intensification of the ridge. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and local AEMET guidance will refine these thresholds as the date approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月9日馬德裏氣溫最高？
7月9日馬德裏氣溫最高？
38°C 100.0%
35°C or below <1%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
$85,325 交易量
$85,325 交易量
2026-07-09
35°C or below
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
Yes
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C or higher
No
38°C 100.0%
35°C or below <1%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
$85,325 交易量
$85,325 交易量
2026-07-09
35°C or below
$3,844 交易量
No
36°C
$5,823 交易量
No
37°C
$12,608 交易量
No
38°C
$20,193 交易量
Yes
39°C
$16,708 交易量
No
40°C
$11,265 交易量
No
41°C
$6,218 交易量
No
42°C
$2,834 交易量
No
43°C
$2,265 交易量
No
44°C
$2,117 交易量
No
45°C or higher
$1,450 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from numerical weather models place Madrid's July 9 maximum near 38–39 °C, driven by a strong subtropical ridge promoting clear skies, strong insolation, and light winds that limit mixing. Historical July averages hover around 32–34 °C, but recent days have already reached 37–39 °C amid the same synoptic pattern, pushing the distribution of possible peaks toward the upper end of climatology. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak heating accounts for the tight contest between 38 °C and 39 °C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply above 40 °C absent an unexpected intensification of the ridge. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and local AEMET guidance will refine these thresholds as the date approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$85,325結束日期
2026-07-09市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from numerical weather models place Madrid's July 9 maximum near 38–39 °C, driven by a strong subtropical ridge promoting clear skies, strong insolation, and light winds that limit mixing. Historical July averages hover around 32–34 °C, but recent days have already reached 37–39 °C amid the same synoptic pattern, pushing the distribution of possible peaks toward the upper end of climatology. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak heating accounts for the tight contest between 38 °C and 39 °C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply above 40 °C absent an unexpected intensification of the ridge. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and local AEMET guidance will refine these thresholds as the date approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$85,325結束日期
2026-07-09市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Current short-range forecasts from numerical weather models place Madrid's July 9 maximum near 38–39 °C, driven by a strong subtropical ridge promoting clear skies, strong insolation, and light winds that limit mixing. Historical July averages hover around 32–34 °C, but recent days have already reached 37–39 °C amid the same synoptic pattern, pushing the distribution of possible peaks toward the upper end of climatology. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak heating accounts for the tight contest between 38 °C and 39 °C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply above 40 °C absent an unexpected intensification of the ridge. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and local AEMET guidance will refine these thresholds as the date approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions