Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 12, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) early morning forecast update projecting a peak of 26°C under partly cloudy skies and high pressure dominance. Current observational data shows overnight lows around 16°C with light winds, setting up favorable daytime heating absent significant precipitation risks, as confirmed by ensemble model runs. May climatology typically sees highs near 23°C, but this synoptic pattern—marked by subsiding air and solar insolation—supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden marine layer intrusion or unforecast cloud cover capping peaks below threshold, though JMA hourly updates and station readings through afternoon provide ongoing resolution clarity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 12?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 12?
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$60,579 交易量
$60,579 交易量
2026-05-12
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
Yes
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$60,579 交易量
$60,579 交易量
2026-05-12
15°C or below
$1,840 交易量
No
16°C
$1,610 交易量
No
17°C
$1,507 交易量
No
18°C
$1,532 交易量
No
19°C
$2,853 交易量
No
20°C
$1,997 交易量
No
21°C
$6,117 交易量
No
22°C
$8,767 交易量
No
23°C
$10,420 交易量
No
24°C
$8,231 交易量
No
25°C or higher
$15,704 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 12, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) early morning forecast update projecting a peak of 26°C under partly cloudy skies and high pressure dominance. Current observational data shows overnight lows around 16°C with light winds, setting up favorable daytime heating absent significant precipitation risks, as confirmed by ensemble model runs. May climatology typically sees highs near 23°C, but this synoptic pattern—marked by subsiding air and solar insolation—supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden marine layer intrusion or unforecast cloud cover capping peaks below threshold, though JMA hourly updates and station readings through afternoon provide ongoing resolution clarity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 10, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
交易量
$60,579結束日期
2026-05-12市場開放時間
May 10, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 12, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) early morning forecast update projecting a peak of 26°C under partly cloudy skies and high pressure dominance. Current observational data shows overnight lows around 16°C with light winds, setting up favorable daytime heating absent significant precipitation risks, as confirmed by ensemble model runs. May climatology typically sees highs near 23°C, but this synoptic pattern—marked by subsiding air and solar insolation—supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden marine layer intrusion or unforecast cloud cover capping peaks below threshold, though JMA hourly updates and station readings through afternoon provide ongoing resolution clarity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$60,579結束日期
2026-05-12市場開放時間
May 10, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on May 12, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) early morning forecast update projecting a peak of 26°C under partly cloudy skies and high pressure dominance. Current observational data shows overnight lows around 16°C with light winds, setting up favorable daytime heating absent significant precipitation risks, as confirmed by ensemble model runs. May climatology typically sees highs near 23°C, but this synoptic pattern—marked by subsiding air and solar insolation—supports above-normal warmth. Realistic challenges include sudden marine layer intrusion or unforecast cloud cover capping peaks below threshold, though JMA hourly updates and station readings through afternoon provide ongoing resolution clarity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions