Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp divergence in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 15, with 32°C leading at 29% implied probability amid cloudy conditions projected by the Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory's April 14 update (max 31°C, min 24°C). Recent regional heatwave in Guangdong, featuring peaks above 41°C in isolated spots, sustains bets on 37–38°C (23% each) and 40°C+ (22%), driven by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and dry air advection. However, incoming mid-level moisture and overcast skies could cap peaks near 31–32°C, as some international models like those on timeanddate.com suggest up to 34°C under partly sunny scenarios. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty in boundary-layer heating and urban heat island effects; watch CMA hourly bulletins for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月15日广州气温最高？
4月15日广州气温最高？
30°C或以下 25%
35°C 24%
31°C 23%
33°C 22%
最新
最新
2026-04-15
30°C或以下
25%
31°C
23%
32°C
10%
33°C
22%
34°C
5%
35°C
24%
36°C
21%
37°C
3%
38°C
5%
39°C
1%
40°C或更高
1%
30°C或以下 25%
35°C 24%
31°C 23%
33°C 22%
最新
最新
2026-04-15
30°C或以下
$11 交易量
25%
31°C
$6 交易量
23%
32°C
$8 交易量
10%
33°C
$39 交易量
22%
34°C
$33 交易量
5%
35°C
$9 交易量
24%
36°C
$17 交易量
21%
37°C
$27 交易量
3%
38°C
$511 交易量
5%
39°C
$519 交易量
1%
40°C或更高
$235 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp divergence in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 15, with 32°C leading at 29% implied probability amid cloudy conditions projected by the Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory's April 14 update (max 31°C, min 24°C). Recent regional heatwave in Guangdong, featuring peaks above 41°C in isolated spots, sustains bets on 37–38°C (23% each) and 40°C+ (22%), driven by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and dry air advection. However, incoming mid-level moisture and overcast skies could cap peaks near 31–32°C, as some international models like those on timeanddate.com suggest up to 34°C under partly sunny scenarios. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty in boundary-layer heating and urban heat island effects; watch CMA hourly bulletins for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 14, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$1,400结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 6:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp divergence in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 15, with 32°C leading at 29% implied probability amid cloudy conditions projected by the Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory's April 14 update (max 31°C, min 24°C). Recent regional heatwave in Guangdong, featuring peaks above 41°C in isolated spots, sustains bets on 37–38°C (23% each) and 40°C+ (22%), driven by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and dry air advection. However, incoming mid-level moisture and overcast skies could cap peaks near 31–32°C, as some international models like those on timeanddate.com suggest up to 34°C under partly sunny scenarios. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty in boundary-layer heating and urban heat island effects; watch CMA hourly bulletins for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,400结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 6:04 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects sharp divergence in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 15, with 32°C leading at 29% implied probability amid cloudy conditions projected by the Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory's April 14 update (max 31°C, min 24°C). Recent regional heatwave in Guangdong, featuring peaks above 41°C in isolated spots, sustains bets on 37–38°C (23% each) and 40°C+ (22%), driven by a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and dry air advection. However, incoming mid-level moisture and overcast skies could cap peaks near 31–32°C, as some international models like those on timeanddate.com suggest up to 34°C under partly sunny scenarios. Ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty in boundary-layer heating and urban heat island effects; watch CMA hourly bulletins for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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