Arizona's 5th congressional district maintains a consistent Republican lean reflected in its partisan voting index and voting patterns across recent cycles, which underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Andy Biggs retired to pursue the governorship, leaving an open seat where former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb secured the GOP nomination in the July 21 primaries and faces Democratic nominee Elizabeth Lee in the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Republican. Factors that could still shift outcomes include late-cycle national political shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the East Valley suburbs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-05 House Election Winner
AZ-05 House Election Winner
$33,836 Vol.
$33,836 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
9%
$33,836 Vol.
$33,836 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$18,620 Vol.
91%
Democratic Party
$15,216 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 5th congressional district maintains a consistent Republican lean reflected in its partisan voting index and voting patterns across recent cycles, which underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Andy Biggs retired to pursue the governorship, leaving an open seat where former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb secured the GOP nomination in the July 21 primaries and faces Democratic nominee Elizabeth Lee in the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Republican. Factors that could still shift outcomes include late-cycle national political shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the East Valley suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$33,836End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 5th congressional district maintains a consistent Republican lean reflected in its partisan voting index and voting patterns across recent cycles, which underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Andy Biggs retired to pursue the governorship, leaving an open seat where former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb secured the GOP nomination in the July 21 primaries and faces Democratic nominee Elizabeth Lee in the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Republican. Factors that could still shift outcomes include late-cycle national political shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the East Valley suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,836End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 5th congressional district maintains a consistent Republican lean reflected in its partisan voting index and voting patterns across recent cycles, which underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Andy Biggs retired to pursue the governorship, leaving an open seat where former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb secured the GOP nomination in the July 21 primaries and faces Democratic nominee Elizabeth Lee in the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Republican. Factors that could still shift outcomes include late-cycle national political shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in the East Valley suburbs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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