Pedro Sánchez’s minority government faces ongoing parliamentary fragility after losing Junts support in late 2025, relying on repeated budget extensions and lacking an absolute majority for new legislation. Recent rejection of the 2027 fiscal framework and a major Ceuta migration surge in August 2026 have intensified opposition pressure from the PP and Vox while eroding PSOE polling. Sánchez has consistently rejected snap elections in 2026, signaling intent to reach the constitutional deadline no later than August 2027, though he has left limited room for a technical advance in early 2027 tied to budget outcomes. Key near-term catalysts include any renewed budget push, potential censure motions, and internal PSOE dynamics ahead of the May 2027 regional and municipal contests. Trader views on an imminent call reflect these coalition arithmetic and polling pressures rather than formal announcements.