Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in National Weather Service (NWS) and ensemble forecast models for Austin's highest temperature on April 5, with closely matched implied probabilities around 66-71°F following a cold front that ended March 2026's record warmth. Recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF show a spread of 4-6°F, driven by differences in projected northerly winds (9-10 mph), lingering cloud cover post-frontal passage, and boundary layer mixing potential, which could either cap highs near 66-67°F under overcast skies or allow warming to 70-71°F with afternoon clearing. Climatological April highs average 77°F, but current upper-air patterns favor below-normal temps; watch evening NWS updates and 00z model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution using official Austin-Bergstrom observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Austin on April 5?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 5?
70-71°F 25%
68-69°F 18%
66-67°F 16%
72-73°F 14%
新規
$11,676 Vol.
新規
$11,676 Vol.
2026/04/05
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
9%
62-63°F
6%
64-65°F
4%
66-67°F
27%
68-69°F
18%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
19%
74°F or higher
6%
70-71°F 25%
68-69°F 18%
66-67°F 16%
72-73°F 14%
新規
$11,676 Vol.
新規
$11,676 Vol.
2026/04/05
55°F or below
$3,701 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$2,330 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$610 Vol.
2%
60-61°F
$410 Vol.
9%
62-63°F
$494 Vol.
6%
64-65°F
$322 Vol.
4%
66-67°F
$707 Vol.
27%
68-69°F
$396 Vol.
18%
70-71°F
$491 Vol.
25%
72-73°F
$545 Vol.
19%
74°F or higher
$1,670 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in National Weather Service (NWS) and ensemble forecast models for Austin's highest temperature on April 5, with closely matched implied probabilities around 66-71°F following a cold front that ended March 2026's record warmth. Recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF show a spread of 4-6°F, driven by differences in projected northerly winds (9-10 mph), lingering cloud cover post-frontal passage, and boundary layer mixing potential, which could either cap highs near 66-67°F under overcast skies or allow warming to 70-71°F with afternoon clearing. Climatological April highs average 77°F, but current upper-air patterns favor below-normal temps; watch evening NWS updates and 00z model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution using official Austin-Bergstrom observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
音量
$11,676終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:34 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in National Weather Service (NWS) and ensemble forecast models for Austin's highest temperature on April 5, with closely matched implied probabilities around 66-71°F following a cold front that ended March 2026's record warmth. Recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF show a spread of 4-6°F, driven by differences in projected northerly winds (9-10 mph), lingering cloud cover post-frontal passage, and boundary layer mixing potential, which could either cap highs near 66-67°F under overcast skies or allow warming to 70-71°F with afternoon clearing. Climatological April highs average 77°F, but current upper-air patterns favor below-normal temps; watch evening NWS updates and 00z model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution using official Austin-Bergstrom observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$11,676終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:34 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in National Weather Service (NWS) and ensemble forecast models for Austin's highest temperature on April 5, with closely matched implied probabilities around 66-71°F following a cold front that ended March 2026's record warmth. Recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF show a spread of 4-6°F, driven by differences in projected northerly winds (9-10 mph), lingering cloud cover post-frontal passage, and boundary layer mixing potential, which could either cap highs near 66-67°F under overcast skies or allow warming to 70-71°F with afternoon clearing. Climatological April highs average 77°F, but current upper-air patterns favor below-normal temps; watch evening NWS updates and 00z model refreshes for shifts ahead of resolution using official Austin-Bergstrom observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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