Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and model ensembles for Austin's highest temperature on April 4, with implied odds favoring 74-75°F (25.5%) slightly over 72-73°F (24.5%) amid divergent GFS and ECMWF runs showing highs of 73-77°F. Following March 2026's record warmth—the hottest on record—persistent southeast winds around 10 mph and widespread low-level stratus clouds from a weakening front are capping boundary layer heating, keeping peaks below the early-April climatological average of 79°F at Austin Camp Mabry. Key differentiators include timing of any afternoon cloud breaks for insolation-driven warming versus thicker marine stratus suppressing to the low 70s; new HRRR/NAM updates overnight and tomorrow's 12Z model suite could sharpen the outlook before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Austin on April 4?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 4?
74-75°F 25%
72-73°F 24%
76-77°F 19%
78-79°F 15%
$14,870 Vol.
$14,870 Vol.
2026/04/04
71°F or below
10%
72-73°F
24%
74-75°F
25%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
15%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
1%
74-75°F 25%
72-73°F 24%
76-77°F 19%
78-79°F 15%
$14,870 Vol.
$14,870 Vol.
2026/04/04
71°F or below
$403 Vol.
10%
72-73°F
$612 Vol.
24%
74-75°F
$846 Vol.
25%
76-77°F
$881 Vol.
19%
78-79°F
$544 Vol.
15%
80-81°F
$499 Vol.
7%
82-83°F
$932 Vol.
5%
84-85°F
$2,605 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$2,939 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$2,148 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$2,462 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and model ensembles for Austin's highest temperature on April 4, with implied odds favoring 74-75°F (25.5%) slightly over 72-73°F (24.5%) amid divergent GFS and ECMWF runs showing highs of 73-77°F. Following March 2026's record warmth—the hottest on record—persistent southeast winds around 10 mph and widespread low-level stratus clouds from a weakening front are capping boundary layer heating, keeping peaks below the early-April climatological average of 79°F at Austin Camp Mabry. Key differentiators include timing of any afternoon cloud breaks for insolation-driven warming versus thicker marine stratus suppressing to the low 70s; new HRRR/NAM updates overnight and tomorrow's 12Z model suite could sharpen the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
音量
$14,870終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and model ensembles for Austin's highest temperature on April 4, with implied odds favoring 74-75°F (25.5%) slightly over 72-73°F (24.5%) amid divergent GFS and ECMWF runs showing highs of 73-77°F. Following March 2026's record warmth—the hottest on record—persistent southeast winds around 10 mph and widespread low-level stratus clouds from a weakening front are capping boundary layer heating, keeping peaks below the early-April climatological average of 79°F at Austin Camp Mabry. Key differentiators include timing of any afternoon cloud breaks for insolation-driven warming versus thicker marine stratus suppressing to the low 70s; new HRRR/NAM updates overnight and tomorrow's 12Z model suite could sharpen the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$14,870終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and model ensembles for Austin's highest temperature on April 4, with implied odds favoring 74-75°F (25.5%) slightly over 72-73°F (24.5%) amid divergent GFS and ECMWF runs showing highs of 73-77°F. Following March 2026's record warmth—the hottest on record—persistent southeast winds around 10 mph and widespread low-level stratus clouds from a weakening front are capping boundary layer heating, keeping peaks below the early-April climatological average of 79°F at Austin Camp Mabry. Key differentiators include timing of any afternoon cloud breaks for insolation-driven warming versus thicker marine stratus suppressing to the low 70s; new HRRR/NAM updates overnight and tomorrow's 12Z model suite could sharpen the outlook before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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