Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold with a strongly favorable partisan voting index, driving trader consensus toward the GOP nominee following the June 2026 primaries. Incumbent Randy Feenstra's decision to seek the governorship created an open seat, yet Republican Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed after receiving key endorsements, including from former President Trump, while consolidating support from local business and party networks. Democrat Dave Dawson emerged from a competitive primary but faces structural challenges in a district where Republicans have consistently posted double-digit margins in recent cycles. With the general election still months away, factors such as national midterm dynamics, candidate fundraising, or unforeseen controversies could narrow the gap, though current positioning reflects limited paths for Democratic gains absent major shifts in voter turnout or broader political conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$13,054 Vol.
$13,054 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
$13,054 Vol.
$13,054 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$6,182 Vol.
94%
民主党
$6,872 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold with a strongly favorable partisan voting index, driving trader consensus toward the GOP nominee following the June 2026 primaries. Incumbent Randy Feenstra's decision to seek the governorship created an open seat, yet Republican Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed after receiving key endorsements, including from former President Trump, while consolidating support from local business and party networks. Democrat Dave Dawson emerged from a competitive primary but faces structural challenges in a district where Republicans have consistently posted double-digit margins in recent cycles. With the general election still months away, factors such as national midterm dynamics, candidate fundraising, or unforeseen controversies could narrow the gap, though current positioning reflects limited paths for Democratic gains absent major shifts in voter turnout or broader political conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$13,054終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold with a strongly favorable partisan voting index, driving trader consensus toward the GOP nominee following the June 2026 primaries. Incumbent Randy Feenstra's decision to seek the governorship created an open seat, yet Republican Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed after receiving key endorsements, including from former President Trump, while consolidating support from local business and party networks. Democrat Dave Dawson emerged from a competitive primary but faces structural challenges in a district where Republicans have consistently posted double-digit margins in recent cycles. With the general election still months away, factors such as national midterm dynamics, candidate fundraising, or unforeseen controversies could narrow the gap, though current positioning reflects limited paths for Democratic gains absent major shifts in voter turnout or broader political conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$13,054終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Republican stronghold with a strongly favorable partisan voting index, driving trader consensus toward the GOP nominee following the June 2026 primaries. Incumbent Randy Feenstra's decision to seek the governorship created an open seat, yet Republican Chris McGowan secured the nomination unopposed after receiving key endorsements, including from former President Trump, while consolidating support from local business and party networks. Democrat Dave Dawson emerged from a competitive primary but faces structural challenges in a district where Republicans have consistently posted double-digit margins in recent cycles. With the general election still months away, factors such as national midterm dynamics, candidate fundraising, or unforeseen controversies could narrow the gap, though current positioning reflects limited paths for Democratic gains absent major shifts in voter turnout or broader political conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問