Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan's strong position in Ohio's 4th congressional district stems from the area's consistent Republican voting patterns, including a 68.5% margin in the prior general election, combined with his long tenure and uncontested primary victory in May 2026. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the challenger's low visibility ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural advantages and historical base rates for similar districts. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in a national wave could narrow the gap, though such shifts would require substantial departures from current conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$3,560 Vol.
94%
民主党
$5,603 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan's strong position in Ohio's 4th congressional district stems from the area's consistent Republican voting patterns, including a 68.5% margin in the prior general election, combined with his long tenure and uncontested primary victory in May 2026. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the challenger's low visibility ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural advantages and historical base rates for similar districts. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in a national wave could narrow the gap, though such shifts would require substantial departures from current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$9,163終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan's strong position in Ohio's 4th congressional district stems from the area's consistent Republican voting patterns, including a 68.5% margin in the prior general election, combined with his long tenure and uncontested primary victory in May 2026. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the challenger's low visibility ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural advantages and historical base rates for similar districts. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in a national wave could narrow the gap, though such shifts would require substantial departures from current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,163終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Jordan's strong position in Ohio's 4th congressional district stems from the area's consistent Republican voting patterns, including a 68.5% margin in the prior general election, combined with his long tenure and uncontested primary victory in May 2026. Forecasters rate the seat as solidly Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the challenger's low visibility ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural advantages and historical base rates for similar districts. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in a national wave could narrow the gap, though such shifts would require substantial departures from current conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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