The Democratic nominee, incumbent U.S. Representative Brendan Boyle, maintains a commanding lead in the PA-02 House race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean (D+19 PVI) centered in Philadelphia, his consistent primary and general election victories—including 71.5% in 2024—and the absence of competitive Republican challengers after Jessica Arriaga secured the GOP nomination. Traders price in minimal risk of an upset ahead of the November 2026 general election, consistent with historical performance in this safe seat and the limited national environment shifts observed to date. A late-breaking scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$24,116 거래량
$24,116 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
4%
$24,116 거래량
$24,116 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$5,804 거래량
95%
공화당
$18,312 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee, incumbent U.S. Representative Brendan Boyle, maintains a commanding lead in the PA-02 House race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean (D+19 PVI) centered in Philadelphia, his consistent primary and general election victories—including 71.5% in 2024—and the absence of competitive Republican challengers after Jessica Arriaga secured the GOP nomination. Traders price in minimal risk of an upset ahead of the November 2026 general election, consistent with historical performance in this safe seat and the limited national environment shifts observed to date. A late-breaking scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$24,116종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee, incumbent U.S. Representative Brendan Boyle, maintains a commanding lead in the PA-02 House race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean (D+19 PVI) centered in Philadelphia, his consistent primary and general election victories—including 71.5% in 2024—and the absence of competitive Republican challengers after Jessica Arriaga secured the GOP nomination. Traders price in minimal risk of an upset ahead of the November 2026 general election, consistent with historical performance in this safe seat and the limited national environment shifts observed to date. A late-breaking scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$24,116종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee, incumbent U.S. Representative Brendan Boyle, maintains a commanding lead in the PA-02 House race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean (D+19 PVI) centered in Philadelphia, his consistent primary and general election victories—including 71.5% in 2024—and the absence of competitive Republican challengers after Jessica Arriaga secured the GOP nomination. Traders price in minimal risk of an upset ahead of the November 2026 general election, consistent with historical performance in this safe seat and the limited national environment shifts observed to date. A late-breaking scandal, serious health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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