Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle's commanding trader consensus at 94.5% in the PA-02 House race stems from the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Cook PVI D+19—and his unchallenged path through the upcoming May 19 Democratic primary, following easy 2024 reelection victories with margins over 50 points. Northeast Philadelphia's reliable Democratic turnout, minimal GOP infrastructure, and lack of competitive polling or fundraising from Republicans reinforce this safe seat status, aligning with historical base rates for such strongholds where incumbents win over 95% of the time. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; traders price in low upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a surprise Republican primary winner with national backing, or extraordinary midterm turnout swings could challenge this, though precedents suggest slim odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$16,335 거래량
$16,335 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$16,335 거래량
$16,335 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$2,224 거래량
95%
Republican Party
$14,111 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle's commanding trader consensus at 94.5% in the PA-02 House race stems from the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Cook PVI D+19—and his unchallenged path through the upcoming May 19 Democratic primary, following easy 2024 reelection victories with margins over 50 points. Northeast Philadelphia's reliable Democratic turnout, minimal GOP infrastructure, and lack of competitive polling or fundraising from Republicans reinforce this safe seat status, aligning with historical base rates for such strongholds where incumbents win over 95% of the time. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; traders price in low upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a surprise Republican primary winner with national backing, or extraordinary midterm turnout swings could challenge this, though precedents suggest slim odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$16,335종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle's commanding trader consensus at 94.5% in the PA-02 House race stems from the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Cook PVI D+19—and his unchallenged path through the upcoming May 19 Democratic primary, following easy 2024 reelection victories with margins over 50 points. Northeast Philadelphia's reliable Democratic turnout, minimal GOP infrastructure, and lack of competitive polling or fundraising from Republicans reinforce this safe seat status, aligning with historical base rates for such strongholds where incumbents win over 95% of the time. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; traders price in low upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a surprise Republican primary winner with national backing, or extraordinary midterm turnout swings could challenge this, though precedents suggest slim odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$16,335종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Brendan Boyle's commanding trader consensus at 94.5% in the PA-02 House race stems from the district's deep-blue partisan lean—Cook PVI D+19—and his unchallenged path through the upcoming May 19 Democratic primary, following easy 2024 reelection victories with margins over 50 points. Northeast Philadelphia's reliable Democratic turnout, minimal GOP infrastructure, and lack of competitive polling or fundraising from Republicans reinforce this safe seat status, aligning with historical base rates for such strongholds where incumbents win over 95% of the time. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; traders price in low upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a surprise Republican primary winner with national backing, or extraordinary midterm turnout swings could challenge this, though precedents suggest slim odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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