Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez seeks a third term in the R+2 Washington 3rd district, a competitive seat she carried narrowly in 2024. Recent internal polling from Republican sources shows challenger John Braun, the state Senate minority leader with Trump endorsement, leading Perez by 7 points in April 2026 surveys, though other data remain mixed. Primary dynamics feature multiple Democratic entrants including Brent Hennrich, potentially splitting support ahead of the August top-two contest. Fundraising favors Perez, who reported stronger quarterly totals and cash reserves than Braun. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district's narrow partisan lean and historical incumbent resilience amid shifting voter sentiment. Trader consensus assigns Democrats a 59% implied probability of holding the seat, consistent with these structural and polling factors.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
59%
Republican Party
32%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$931 거래량
59%
Republican Party
$375 거래량
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez seeks a third term in the R+2 Washington 3rd district, a competitive seat she carried narrowly in 2024. Recent internal polling from Republican sources shows challenger John Braun, the state Senate minority leader with Trump endorsement, leading Perez by 7 points in April 2026 surveys, though other data remain mixed. Primary dynamics feature multiple Democratic entrants including Brent Hennrich, potentially splitting support ahead of the August top-two contest. Fundraising favors Perez, who reported stronger quarterly totals and cash reserves than Braun. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district's narrow partisan lean and historical incumbent resilience amid shifting voter sentiment. Trader consensus assigns Democrats a 59% implied probability of holding the seat, consistent with these structural and polling factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
거래량
$1,306종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez seeks a third term in the R+2 Washington 3rd district, a competitive seat she carried narrowly in 2024. Recent internal polling from Republican sources shows challenger John Braun, the state Senate minority leader with Trump endorsement, leading Perez by 7 points in April 2026 surveys, though other data remain mixed. Primary dynamics feature multiple Democratic entrants including Brent Hennrich, potentially splitting support ahead of the August top-two contest. Fundraising favors Perez, who reported stronger quarterly totals and cash reserves than Braun. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district's narrow partisan lean and historical incumbent resilience amid shifting voter sentiment. Trader consensus assigns Democrats a 59% implied probability of holding the seat, consistent with these structural and polling factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$1,306종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez seeks a third term in the R+2 Washington 3rd district, a competitive seat she carried narrowly in 2024. Recent internal polling from Republican sources shows challenger John Braun, the state Senate minority leader with Trump endorsement, leading Perez by 7 points in April 2026 surveys, though other data remain mixed. Primary dynamics feature multiple Democratic entrants including Brent Hennrich, potentially splitting support ahead of the August top-two contest. Fundraising favors Perez, who reported stronger quarterly totals and cash reserves than Braun. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district's narrow partisan lean and historical incumbent resilience amid shifting voter sentiment. Trader consensus assigns Democrats a 59% implied probability of holding the seat, consistent with these structural and polling factors.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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