Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win Florida's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's R+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his 57% victory margin in 2024, and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others as of April 14. Bean's fundraising strength—over $1 million cash on hand through late 2025—dwarfs the fragmented Democratic primary field of Michael Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson, who hold under $200,000 combined. Recent quarterly filings reaffirm this financial gap, with no polls yet but historical incumbent advantages in safe seats bolstering GOP positioning ahead of August 18 primaries. Democrats trail at 13.5% amid Florida's tightening generic congressional ballot.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
14%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$4,481 거래량
83%
Democratic Party
$2,834 거래량
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win Florida's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's R+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his 57% victory margin in 2024, and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others as of April 14. Bean's fundraising strength—over $1 million cash on hand through late 2025—dwarfs the fragmented Democratic primary field of Michael Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson, who hold under $200,000 combined. Recent quarterly filings reaffirm this financial gap, with no polls yet but historical incumbent advantages in safe seats bolstering GOP positioning ahead of August 18 primaries. Democrats trail at 13.5% amid Florida's tightening generic congressional ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
거래량
$7,314종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win Florida's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's R+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his 57% victory margin in 2024, and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others as of April 14. Bean's fundraising strength—over $1 million cash on hand through late 2025—dwarfs the fragmented Democratic primary field of Michael Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson, who hold under $200,000 combined. Recent quarterly filings reaffirm this financial gap, with no polls yet but historical incumbent advantages in safe seats bolstering GOP positioning ahead of August 18 primaries. Democrats trail at 13.5% amid Florida's tightening generic congressional ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$7,314종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win Florida's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's R+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his 57% victory margin in 2024, and Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others as of April 14. Bean's fundraising strength—over $1 million cash on hand through late 2025—dwarfs the fragmented Democratic primary field of Michael Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson, who hold under $200,000 combined. Recent quarterly filings reaffirm this financial gap, with no polls yet but historical incumbent advantages in safe seats bolstering GOP positioning ahead of August 18 primaries. Democrats trail at 13.5% amid Florida's tightening generic congressional ballot.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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