Recent NRCC polling released May 8 shows Republican Eric Flores holding a slim 41%-40% lead over Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez in TX-34, with 18% undecided among likely voters in this toss-up South Texas district, reflecting trader consensus on its closely contested status. Redistricting via 2025's House Bill 4 shifted the district to Cook PVI EVEN from prior D+9 leans, neutralizing Democratic advantages amid GOP gains with Hispanic voters on border security—a key issue in the Rio Grande Valley where Trump carried comparable margins in 2024. Gonzalez's incumbency and $1.9 million cash-on-hand provide a slight edge over Flores' Trump endorsement and strong Q1 fundraising, but high undecideds and generic Republican ballot leads keep probabilities tight. Separation could arise from summer debates, independent polls, turnout among battleground Latino voters, or national midterm headwinds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
62%
Republican Party
34%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$543 거래량
62%
Republican Party
$290 거래량
34%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent NRCC polling released May 8 shows Republican Eric Flores holding a slim 41%-40% lead over Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez in TX-34, with 18% undecided among likely voters in this toss-up South Texas district, reflecting trader consensus on its closely contested status. Redistricting via 2025's House Bill 4 shifted the district to Cook PVI EVEN from prior D+9 leans, neutralizing Democratic advantages amid GOP gains with Hispanic voters on border security—a key issue in the Rio Grande Valley where Trump carried comparable margins in 2024. Gonzalez's incumbency and $1.9 million cash-on-hand provide a slight edge over Flores' Trump endorsement and strong Q1 fundraising, but high undecideds and generic Republican ballot leads keep probabilities tight. Separation could arise from summer debates, independent polls, turnout among battleground Latino voters, or national midterm headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
거래량
$834종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent NRCC polling released May 8 shows Republican Eric Flores holding a slim 41%-40% lead over Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez in TX-34, with 18% undecided among likely voters in this toss-up South Texas district, reflecting trader consensus on its closely contested status. Redistricting via 2025's House Bill 4 shifted the district to Cook PVI EVEN from prior D+9 leans, neutralizing Democratic advantages amid GOP gains with Hispanic voters on border security—a key issue in the Rio Grande Valley where Trump carried comparable margins in 2024. Gonzalez's incumbency and $1.9 million cash-on-hand provide a slight edge over Flores' Trump endorsement and strong Q1 fundraising, but high undecideds and generic Republican ballot leads keep probabilities tight. Separation could arise from summer debates, independent polls, turnout among battleground Latino voters, or national midterm headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$834종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent NRCC polling released May 8 shows Republican Eric Flores holding a slim 41%-40% lead over Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez in TX-34, with 18% undecided among likely voters in this toss-up South Texas district, reflecting trader consensus on its closely contested status. Redistricting via 2025's House Bill 4 shifted the district to Cook PVI EVEN from prior D+9 leans, neutralizing Democratic advantages amid GOP gains with Hispanic voters on border security—a key issue in the Rio Grande Valley where Trump carried comparable margins in 2024. Gonzalez's incumbency and $1.9 million cash-on-hand provide a slight edge over Flores' Trump endorsement and strong Q1 fundraising, but high undecideds and generic Republican ballot leads keep probabilities tight. Separation could arise from summer debates, independent polls, turnout among battleground Latino voters, or national midterm headwinds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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