Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 27% for 29°C, 22% for 26°C or below, and 21% for 27°C, driven by divergent model outputs from the China Meteorological Administration (26°C max amid moderate rain) and AccuWeather (up to 29°C with increasing clouds). Key differentiating factors include timing of convective showers and cloud cover, which could suppress daytime insolation and cap peaks below 28°C, versus partial clearing allowing urban heat island effects to push toward 29°C—consistent with April's +3°C anomaly over the 27°C historical average. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF highlight this variability; watch afternoon updates from official stations for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
29°C 32%
26°C or below 23%
27°C 23%
28°C 20%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
26°C or below
23%
27°C
23%
28°C
20%
29°C
28%
30°C
10%
31°C
7%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
1%
29°C 32%
26°C or below 23%
27°C 23%
28°C 20%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
26°C or below
$418 交易量
23%
27°C
$171 交易量
23%
28°C
$207 交易量
20%
29°C
$215 交易量
28%
30°C
$323 交易量
10%
31°C
$389 交易量
7%
32°C
$816 交易量
2%
33°C
$604 交易量
1%
34°C
$1,917 交易量
<1%
35°C
$1,670 交易量
<1%
36°C or higher
$1,350 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 27% for 29°C, 22% for 26°C or below, and 21% for 27°C, driven by divergent model outputs from the China Meteorological Administration (26°C max amid moderate rain) and AccuWeather (up to 29°C with increasing clouds). Key differentiating factors include timing of convective showers and cloud cover, which could suppress daytime insolation and cap peaks below 28°C, versus partial clearing allowing urban heat island effects to push toward 29°C—consistent with April's +3°C anomaly over the 27°C historical average. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF highlight this variability; watch afternoon updates from official stations for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
交易量
$8,078結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 27% for 29°C, 22% for 26°C or below, and 21% for 27°C, driven by divergent model outputs from the China Meteorological Administration (26°C max amid moderate rain) and AccuWeather (up to 29°C with increasing clouds). Key differentiating factors include timing of convective showers and cloud cover, which could suppress daytime insolation and cap peaks below 28°C, versus partial clearing allowing urban heat island effects to push toward 29°C—consistent with April's +3°C anomaly over the 27°C historical average. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF highlight this variability; watch afternoon updates from official stations for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$8,078結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 27% for 29°C, 22% for 26°C or below, and 21% for 27°C, driven by divergent model outputs from the China Meteorological Administration (26°C max amid moderate rain) and AccuWeather (up to 29°C with increasing clouds). Key differentiating factors include timing of convective showers and cloud cover, which could suppress daytime insolation and cap peaks below 28°C, versus partial clearing allowing urban heat island effects to push toward 29°C—consistent with April's +3°C anomaly over the 27°C historical average. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF highlight this variability; watch afternoon updates from official stations for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions