**Trader consensus has locked in 22°C at 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 6, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest observational data and short-term forecasts showing peak readings at Haneda Airport station around 22°C under persistent cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** Morning temperatures started near 18°C, with model consensus from JMA's nowcasts indicating limited daytime heating due to overcast conditions capping solar insolation, aligning closely with the May climatological normal of 22.8°C. This positioning reflects strong evidence from real-time AMEDAS station data and minimal upside from current synoptic patterns—a weak high-pressure ridge and incoming cooler air mass. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and stronger insolation in the afternoon, potentially pushing sustained winds below 23°C, though low solar angles late in the day reduce this likelihood; final JMA tallies expected by evening UTC.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 6?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 6?
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$163,579 交易量
$163,579 交易量
2026-05-06
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$163,579 交易量
$163,579 交易量
2026-05-06
14°C or below
$10,794 交易量
No
15°C
$12,279 交易量
No
16°C
$242 交易量
No
17°C
$1,103 交易量
No
18°C
$11,231 交易量
No
19°C
$12,735 交易量
No
20°C
$15,492 交易量
No
21°C
$37,279 交易量
No
22°C
$24,813 交易量
Yes
23°C
$16,386 交易量
No
24°C or higher
$21,224 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus has locked in 22°C at 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 6, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest observational data and short-term forecasts showing peak readings at Haneda Airport station around 22°C under persistent cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** Morning temperatures started near 18°C, with model consensus from JMA's nowcasts indicating limited daytime heating due to overcast conditions capping solar insolation, aligning closely with the May climatological normal of 22.8°C. This positioning reflects strong evidence from real-time AMEDAS station data and minimal upside from current synoptic patterns—a weak high-pressure ridge and incoming cooler air mass. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and stronger insolation in the afternoon, potentially pushing sustained winds below 23°C, though low solar angles late in the day reduce this likelihood; final JMA tallies expected by evening UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
交易量
$163,579結束日期
2026-05-06市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus has locked in 22°C at 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 6, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest observational data and short-term forecasts showing peak readings at Haneda Airport station around 22°C under persistent cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** Morning temperatures started near 18°C, with model consensus from JMA's nowcasts indicating limited daytime heating due to overcast conditions capping solar insolation, aligning closely with the May climatological normal of 22.8°C. This positioning reflects strong evidence from real-time AMEDAS station data and minimal upside from current synoptic patterns—a weak high-pressure ridge and incoming cooler air mass. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and stronger insolation in the afternoon, potentially pushing sustained winds below 23°C, though low solar angles late in the day reduce this likelihood; final JMA tallies expected by evening UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$163,579結束日期
2026-05-06市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 12:55 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
**Trader consensus has locked in 22°C at 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 6, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest observational data and short-term forecasts showing peak readings at Haneda Airport station around 22°C under persistent cloudy skies and light southerly winds.** Morning temperatures started near 18°C, with model consensus from JMA's nowcasts indicating limited daytime heating due to overcast conditions capping solar insolation, aligning closely with the May climatological normal of 22.8°C. This positioning reflects strong evidence from real-time AMEDAS station data and minimal upside from current synoptic patterns—a weak high-pressure ridge and incoming cooler air mass. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing and stronger insolation in the afternoon, potentially pushing sustained winds below 23°C, though low solar angles late in the day reduce this likelihood; final JMA tallies expected by evening UTC.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions