Iowa's 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican lean, rated Solid Republican by forecasters with a partisan voting index around R+15, reflecting consistent wide margins in recent cycles including 67 percent for the prior incumbent. The open seat after Randy Feenstra's retirement to run for governor produced an uncontested or dominant Republican primary win for Chris McGowan, backed by local business ties and endorsements, against Democrat Dave Dawson who emerged from a contested primary with limited fundraising. This structural advantage and candidate positioning underpin the trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. A national Democratic wave, significant Republican scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns indicate limited upside for the challenger.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$32,156 交易量
$32,156 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$32,156 交易量
$32,156 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
$20,064 交易量
93%
民主党
$12,091 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican lean, rated Solid Republican by forecasters with a partisan voting index around R+15, reflecting consistent wide margins in recent cycles including 67 percent for the prior incumbent. The open seat after Randy Feenstra's retirement to run for governor produced an uncontested or dominant Republican primary win for Chris McGowan, backed by local business ties and endorsements, against Democrat Dave Dawson who emerged from a contested primary with limited fundraising. This structural advantage and candidate positioning underpin the trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. A national Democratic wave, significant Republican scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns indicate limited upside for the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$32,156结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican lean, rated Solid Republican by forecasters with a partisan voting index around R+15, reflecting consistent wide margins in recent cycles including 67 percent for the prior incumbent. The open seat after Randy Feenstra's retirement to run for governor produced an uncontested or dominant Republican primary win for Chris McGowan, backed by local business ties and endorsements, against Democrat Dave Dawson who emerged from a contested primary with limited fundraising. This structural advantage and candidate positioning underpin the trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. A national Democratic wave, significant Republican scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns indicate limited upside for the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,156结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican lean, rated Solid Republican by forecasters with a partisan voting index around R+15, reflecting consistent wide margins in recent cycles including 67 percent for the prior incumbent. The open seat after Randy Feenstra's retirement to run for governor produced an uncontested or dominant Republican primary win for Chris McGowan, backed by local business ties and endorsements, against Democrat Dave Dawson who emerged from a contested primary with limited fundraising. This structural advantage and candidate positioning underpin the trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. A national Democratic wave, significant Republican scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns indicate limited upside for the challenger.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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