Florida's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat under the post-redistricting map, with incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean seeking re-election against a fragmented Democratic primary field. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan voting index and Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024. Bean faces limited primary opposition while Democrats have yet to coalesce behind a single challenger ahead of the August 18 primaries. With no major developments or polling shifts in recent weeks, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party an implied 78% probability of holding the seat in November, consistent with historical patterns for similarly situated incumbents.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,912 交易量
$11,912 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
78%
民主党
19%
$11,912 交易量
$11,912 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$6,745 交易量
78%
民主党
$5,167 交易量
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat under the post-redistricting map, with incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean seeking re-election against a fragmented Democratic primary field. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan voting index and Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024. Bean faces limited primary opposition while Democrats have yet to coalesce behind a single challenger ahead of the August 18 primaries. With no major developments or polling shifts in recent weeks, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party an implied 78% probability of holding the seat in November, consistent with historical patterns for similarly situated incumbents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
交易量
$11,912结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat under the post-redistricting map, with incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean seeking re-election against a fragmented Democratic primary field. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan voting index and Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024. Bean faces limited primary opposition while Democrats have yet to coalesce behind a single challenger ahead of the August 18 primaries. With no major developments or polling shifts in recent weeks, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party an implied 78% probability of holding the seat in November, consistent with historical patterns for similarly situated incumbents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,912结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat under the post-redistricting map, with incumbent Rep. Aaron Bean seeking re-election against a fragmented Democratic primary field. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan voting index and Donald Trump's 12-point margin there in 2024. Bean faces limited primary opposition while Democrats have yet to coalesce behind a single challenger ahead of the August 18 primaries. With no major developments or polling shifts in recent weeks, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party an implied 78% probability of holding the seat in November, consistent with historical patterns for similarly situated incumbents.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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