Incumbent Republican Maria Elvira Salazar maintains a strong position in Florida’s 27th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, supported by the seat’s R+14.7 partisan lean and her prior general-election margins above 60 percent. The Republican primary on August 18 features a challenge from V. Michael Arias, yet Salazar’s incumbency and fundraising edge position her as the likely nominee. On the Democratic side, the field remains divided among candidates including Robin Peguero and Eliott Rodriguez, with recent primary polling showing no clear frontrunner and limited consolidation. This fragmentation, combined with the district’s underlying Republican tilt and historical turnout patterns, drives trader consensus assigning the Republican Party a 75.5 percent implied probability of holding the seat versus 25 percent for Democrats. No major late-cycle shifts have altered these dynamics as of late July 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,809 交易量
$15,809 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
76%
民主党
25%
$15,809 交易量
$15,809 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$7,587 交易量
76%
民主党
$8,223 交易量
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Maria Elvira Salazar maintains a strong position in Florida’s 27th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, supported by the seat’s R+14.7 partisan lean and her prior general-election margins above 60 percent. The Republican primary on August 18 features a challenge from V. Michael Arias, yet Salazar’s incumbency and fundraising edge position her as the likely nominee. On the Democratic side, the field remains divided among candidates including Robin Peguero and Eliott Rodriguez, with recent primary polling showing no clear frontrunner and limited consolidation. This fragmentation, combined with the district’s underlying Republican tilt and historical turnout patterns, drives trader consensus assigning the Republican Party a 75.5 percent implied probability of holding the seat versus 25 percent for Democrats. No major late-cycle shifts have altered these dynamics as of late July 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
交易量
$15,809结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Maria Elvira Salazar maintains a strong position in Florida’s 27th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, supported by the seat’s R+14.7 partisan lean and her prior general-election margins above 60 percent. The Republican primary on August 18 features a challenge from V. Michael Arias, yet Salazar’s incumbency and fundraising edge position her as the likely nominee. On the Democratic side, the field remains divided among candidates including Robin Peguero and Eliott Rodriguez, with recent primary polling showing no clear frontrunner and limited consolidation. This fragmentation, combined with the district’s underlying Republican tilt and historical turnout patterns, drives trader consensus assigning the Republican Party a 75.5 percent implied probability of holding the seat versus 25 percent for Democrats. No major late-cycle shifts have altered these dynamics as of late July 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,809结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Maria Elvira Salazar maintains a strong position in Florida’s 27th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, supported by the seat’s R+14.7 partisan lean and her prior general-election margins above 60 percent. The Republican primary on August 18 features a challenge from V. Michael Arias, yet Salazar’s incumbency and fundraising edge position her as the likely nominee. On the Democratic side, the field remains divided among candidates including Robin Peguero and Eliott Rodriguez, with recent primary polling showing no clear frontrunner and limited consolidation. This fragmentation, combined with the district’s underlying Republican tilt and historical turnout patterns, drives trader consensus assigning the Republican Party a 75.5 percent implied probability of holding the seat versus 25 percent for Democrats. No major late-cycle shifts have altered these dynamics as of late July 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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