Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 3rd congressional district toward a D+6 partisan voter index by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas around Sacramento while removing Republican strongholds, positioning incumbent Democrat Ami Bera for a strong general-election advantage. Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with the highest vote share and benefits from established fundraising, endorsements, and name recognition against Republican Robb Tucker, a Nevada County supervisor. Forecasters rate the seat safe or solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the district's structural tilt and limited competitive path for Republicans. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain uncommon this close to the November 3 election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$43,504 Vol.
$43,504 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
$43,504 Vol.
$43,504 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$25,885 Vol.
95%
共和党
$17,619 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 3rd congressional district toward a D+6 partisan voter index by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas around Sacramento while removing Republican strongholds, positioning incumbent Democrat Ami Bera for a strong general-election advantage. Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with the highest vote share and benefits from established fundraising, endorsements, and name recognition against Republican Robb Tucker, a Nevada County supervisor. Forecasters rate the seat safe or solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the district's structural tilt and limited competitive path for Republicans. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain uncommon this close to the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$43,504終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 3rd congressional district toward a D+6 partisan voter index by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas around Sacramento while removing Republican strongholds, positioning incumbent Democrat Ami Bera for a strong general-election advantage. Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with the highest vote share and benefits from established fundraising, endorsements, and name recognition against Republican Robb Tucker, a Nevada County supervisor. Forecasters rate the seat safe or solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the district's structural tilt and limited competitive path for Republicans. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain uncommon this close to the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$43,504終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 3rd congressional district toward a D+6 partisan voter index by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas around Sacramento while removing Republican strongholds, positioning incumbent Democrat Ami Bera for a strong general-election advantage. Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with the highest vote share and benefits from established fundraising, endorsements, and name recognition against Republican Robb Tucker, a Nevada County supervisor. Forecasters rate the seat safe or solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the district's structural tilt and limited competitive path for Republicans. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain uncommon this close to the November 3 election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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