California's 3rd congressional district underwent redistricting that shifted its partisan lean significantly toward Democrats, with the new map producing a D+6 or stronger partisan voting index and a 10-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in the prior cycle. Incumbent Republican Kevin Kiley opted to seek another seat rather than contest the revised boundaries. Democratic Representative Ami Bera, previously representing the neighboring 6th district, entered the race and leads a crowded field that includes other Democrats and several Republicans ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Forecasters rate the general election contest Solid Democratic on the strength of the district's composition and Bera's established profile, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Democratic nominee an 86.5% implied probability of victory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$26,313 Vol.
$26,313 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
87%
共和党
3%
$26,313 Vol.
$26,313 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,173 Vol.
87%
共和党
$12,141 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 3rd congressional district underwent redistricting that shifted its partisan lean significantly toward Democrats, with the new map producing a D+6 or stronger partisan voting index and a 10-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in the prior cycle. Incumbent Republican Kevin Kiley opted to seek another seat rather than contest the revised boundaries. Democratic Representative Ami Bera, previously representing the neighboring 6th district, entered the race and leads a crowded field that includes other Democrats and several Republicans ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Forecasters rate the general election contest Solid Democratic on the strength of the district's composition and Bera's established profile, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Democratic nominee an 86.5% implied probability of victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$26,313終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 3rd congressional district underwent redistricting that shifted its partisan lean significantly toward Democrats, with the new map producing a D+6 or stronger partisan voting index and a 10-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in the prior cycle. Incumbent Republican Kevin Kiley opted to seek another seat rather than contest the revised boundaries. Democratic Representative Ami Bera, previously representing the neighboring 6th district, entered the race and leads a crowded field that includes other Democrats and several Republicans ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Forecasters rate the general election contest Solid Democratic on the strength of the district's composition and Bera's established profile, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Democratic nominee an 86.5% implied probability of victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$26,313終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 3rd congressional district underwent redistricting that shifted its partisan lean significantly toward Democrats, with the new map producing a D+6 or stronger partisan voting index and a 10-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in the prior cycle. Incumbent Republican Kevin Kiley opted to seek another seat rather than contest the revised boundaries. Democratic Representative Ami Bera, previously representing the neighboring 6th district, entered the race and leads a crowded field that includes other Democrats and several Republicans ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Forecasters rate the general election contest Solid Democratic on the strength of the district's composition and Bera's established profile, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Democratic nominee an 86.5% implied probability of victory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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