California’s 3rd congressional district underwent significant redistricting under Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifting its partisan lean from competitive to solidly Democratic, with the new map favoring Democrats by double digits in recent presidential results. Incumbent Republican Representative Kevin Kiley opted to run elsewhere, while Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated from the adjacent 6th district to seek the seat. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary against a smaller Republican field. These structural changes and candidate decisions underpin the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic nominee advancing to and prevailing in the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$26,199 Vol.
$26,199 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
89%
共和党
5%
$26,199 Vol.
$26,199 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,113 Vol.
89%
共和党
$12,087 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 3rd congressional district underwent significant redistricting under Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifting its partisan lean from competitive to solidly Democratic, with the new map favoring Democrats by double digits in recent presidential results. Incumbent Republican Representative Kevin Kiley opted to run elsewhere, while Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated from the adjacent 6th district to seek the seat. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary against a smaller Republican field. These structural changes and candidate decisions underpin the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic nominee advancing to and prevailing in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$26,199終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 3rd congressional district underwent significant redistricting under Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifting its partisan lean from competitive to solidly Democratic, with the new map favoring Democrats by double digits in recent presidential results. Incumbent Republican Representative Kevin Kiley opted to run elsewhere, while Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated from the adjacent 6th district to seek the seat. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary against a smaller Republican field. These structural changes and candidate decisions underpin the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic nominee advancing to and prevailing in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$26,199終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 3rd congressional district underwent significant redistricting under Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, shifting its partisan lean from competitive to solidly Democratic, with the new map favoring Democrats by double digits in recent presidential results. Incumbent Republican Representative Kevin Kiley opted to run elsewhere, while Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated from the adjacent 6th district to seek the seat. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary against a smaller Republican field. These structural changes and candidate decisions underpin the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic nominee advancing to and prevailing in the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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