Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 85.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's R+10 partisan lean and history of double-digit GOP victories, including Rep. Andy Biggs' 2024 win by 21 points before his retirement for the gubernatorial race. President Trump's endorsement of former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who leads GOP primary polls with a massive margin as of late 2025, has solidified the Republican frontrunner ahead of the April 6 filing deadline and July 21 primary. Democrats field a low-profile primary with candidates like Brian Hualde and Chris James facing steep structural barriers in this battleground state's solidly red East Valley district, though national midterm dynamics could influence turnout.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
81%
Democratic Party
14%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$4,264 거래량
81%
Democratic Party
$2,531 거래량
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 85.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's R+10 partisan lean and history of double-digit GOP victories, including Rep. Andy Biggs' 2024 win by 21 points before his retirement for the gubernatorial race. President Trump's endorsement of former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who leads GOP primary polls with a massive margin as of late 2025, has solidified the Republican frontrunner ahead of the April 6 filing deadline and July 21 primary. Democrats field a low-profile primary with candidates like Brian Hualde and Chris James facing steep structural barriers in this battleground state's solidly red East Valley district, though national midterm dynamics could influence turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$6,794종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 85.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's R+10 partisan lean and history of double-digit GOP victories, including Rep. Andy Biggs' 2024 win by 21 points before his retirement for the gubernatorial race. President Trump's endorsement of former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who leads GOP primary polls with a massive margin as of late 2025, has solidified the Republican frontrunner ahead of the April 6 filing deadline and July 21 primary. Democrats field a low-profile primary with candidates like Brian Hualde and Chris James facing steep structural barriers in this battleground state's solidly red East Valley district, though national midterm dynamics could influence turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$6,794종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 85.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's R+10 partisan lean and history of double-digit GOP victories, including Rep. Andy Biggs' 2024 win by 21 points before his retirement for the gubernatorial race. President Trump's endorsement of former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who leads GOP primary polls with a massive margin as of late 2025, has solidified the Republican frontrunner ahead of the April 6 filing deadline and July 21 primary. Democrats field a low-profile primary with candidates like Brian Hualde and Chris James facing steep structural barriers in this battleground state's solidly red East Valley district, though national midterm dynamics could influence turnout.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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