Incumbent Republican Rep. Troy Downing's February filing for re-election in solidly Republican Montana's 2nd Congressional District underpins trader consensus pricing Republicans at 91.5% to win the November general election, reflecting the district's deep-red partisan lean east of the Rockies and his decisive 2024 victory amid a weak early Democratic field including candidates like Brian Miller and Sam Lux. With no recent polling but Cook Political Report rating it Solid R, the wisdom of crowds emphasizes incumbency advantage and historical base rates in safe seats. Scenarios that could shift odds include a high-profile Democratic recruit emerging from the June 2 open primary, a Republican primary upset, personal scandal, or national midterm wave dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$2,665 거래량
92%
Democratic Party
$2,770 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Troy Downing's February filing for re-election in solidly Republican Montana's 2nd Congressional District underpins trader consensus pricing Republicans at 91.5% to win the November general election, reflecting the district's deep-red partisan lean east of the Rockies and his decisive 2024 victory amid a weak early Democratic field including candidates like Brian Miller and Sam Lux. With no recent polling but Cook Political Report rating it Solid R, the wisdom of crowds emphasizes incumbency advantage and historical base rates in safe seats. Scenarios that could shift odds include a high-profile Democratic recruit emerging from the June 2 open primary, a Republican primary upset, personal scandal, or national midterm wave dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$5,435종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Troy Downing's February filing for re-election in solidly Republican Montana's 2nd Congressional District underpins trader consensus pricing Republicans at 91.5% to win the November general election, reflecting the district's deep-red partisan lean east of the Rockies and his decisive 2024 victory amid a weak early Democratic field including candidates like Brian Miller and Sam Lux. With no recent polling but Cook Political Report rating it Solid R, the wisdom of crowds emphasizes incumbency advantage and historical base rates in safe seats. Scenarios that could shift odds include a high-profile Democratic recruit emerging from the June 2 open primary, a Republican primary upset, personal scandal, or national midterm wave dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$5,435종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Troy Downing's February filing for re-election in solidly Republican Montana's 2nd Congressional District underpins trader consensus pricing Republicans at 91.5% to win the November general election, reflecting the district's deep-red partisan lean east of the Rockies and his decisive 2024 victory amid a weak early Democratic field including candidates like Brian Miller and Sam Lux. With no recent polling but Cook Political Report rating it Solid R, the wisdom of crowds emphasizes incumbency advantage and historical base rates in safe seats. Scenarios that could shift odds include a high-profile Democratic recruit emerging from the June 2 open primary, a Republican primary upset, personal scandal, or national midterm wave dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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