Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle's commanding trader consensus at 91% implied probability in Oregon's 4th Congressional District stems from her strong fundraising position—$502,000 cash on hand as of late March 2026, outpacing Republican contenders—and the district's Solid Democratic rating from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Hoyle won re-election in 2024 with 51.8% amid past narrow GOP challenges, but national Republicans show little investment interest ahead of the May 19 primaries, where she faces minor Democratic rivals Dan Bahlen and Melissa Bird, while GOP hopefuls include prior loser Monique DeSpain. Recent quarterly filings confirm Hoyle's $220,000 haul, reinforcing her path-to-victory. Though exceeding 90%, a Hoyle primary upset, GOP nominee surge, scandal, or midterm Republican wave could challenge this.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
9%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$7,316 거래량
91%
Republican Party
$87 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle's commanding trader consensus at 91% implied probability in Oregon's 4th Congressional District stems from her strong fundraising position—$502,000 cash on hand as of late March 2026, outpacing Republican contenders—and the district's Solid Democratic rating from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Hoyle won re-election in 2024 with 51.8% amid past narrow GOP challenges, but national Republicans show little investment interest ahead of the May 19 primaries, where she faces minor Democratic rivals Dan Bahlen and Melissa Bird, while GOP hopefuls include prior loser Monique DeSpain. Recent quarterly filings confirm Hoyle's $220,000 haul, reinforcing her path-to-victory. Though exceeding 90%, a Hoyle primary upset, GOP nominee surge, scandal, or midterm Republican wave could challenge this.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$7,403종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle's commanding trader consensus at 91% implied probability in Oregon's 4th Congressional District stems from her strong fundraising position—$502,000 cash on hand as of late March 2026, outpacing Republican contenders—and the district's Solid Democratic rating from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Hoyle won re-election in 2024 with 51.8% amid past narrow GOP challenges, but national Republicans show little investment interest ahead of the May 19 primaries, where she faces minor Democratic rivals Dan Bahlen and Melissa Bird, while GOP hopefuls include prior loser Monique DeSpain. Recent quarterly filings confirm Hoyle's $220,000 haul, reinforcing her path-to-victory. Though exceeding 90%, a Hoyle primary upset, GOP nominee surge, scandal, or midterm Republican wave could challenge this.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$7,403종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle's commanding trader consensus at 91% implied probability in Oregon's 4th Congressional District stems from her strong fundraising position—$502,000 cash on hand as of late March 2026, outpacing Republican contenders—and the district's Solid Democratic rating from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Hoyle won re-election in 2024 with 51.8% amid past narrow GOP challenges, but national Republicans show little investment interest ahead of the May 19 primaries, where she faces minor Democratic rivals Dan Bahlen and Melissa Bird, while GOP hopefuls include prior loser Monique DeSpain. Recent quarterly filings confirm Hoyle's $220,000 haul, reinforcing her path-to-victory. Though exceeding 90%, a Hoyle primary upset, GOP nominee surge, scandal, or midterm Republican wave could challenge this.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문