Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 29°C (48.5% implied probability) for Hong Kong on April 17, driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observations of 27°C at 10 a.m. on April 16 amid a southerly airstream delivering hot, humid conditions, with seasonal forecasts signaling normal to above-normal temperatures for April-June due to climate warming trends and potential El Niño influences. Recent days have seen highs exceeding typical April averages of 25-26°C, supported by multi-model consensus for continued fine weather and limited cloud cover, boosting odds for 28-30°C outcomes while low probabilities for cooler temps reflect minimal troughing risk. HKO updates later today could refine short-range model guidance on peak heating.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4月17日香港最高溫度?
4月17日香港最高溫度?
29°C 49%
28°C 29%
30°C 13%
27°C 5.0%
$76,819 交易量
$76,819 交易量
21°C或以下
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
29%
29°C
49%
30°C
13%
31°C或以上
4%
29°C 49%
28°C 29%
30°C 13%
27°C 5.0%
$76,819 交易量
$76,819 交易量
21°C或以下
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
29%
29°C
49%
30°C
13%
31°C或以上
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 29°C (48.5% implied probability) for Hong Kong on April 17, driven by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observations of 27°C at 10 a.m. on April 16 amid a southerly airstream delivering hot, humid conditions, with seasonal forecasts signaling normal to above-normal temperatures for April-June due to climate warming trends and potential El Niño influences. Recent days have seen highs exceeding typical April averages of 25-26°C, supported by multi-model consensus for continued fine weather and limited cloud cover, boosting odds for 28-30°C outcomes while low probabilities for cooler temps reflect minimal troughing risk. HKO updates later today could refine short-range model guidance on peak heating.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions