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Precipitation in London in April?

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Precipitation in London in April?

4月 30

4月 30

<20mm 66.8%

40-50mm 12.7%

30-40mm 10%

20-30mm 5.3%

Polymarket
最新

<20mm 66.8%

40-50mm 12.7%

30-40mm 10%

20-30mm 5.3%

Polymarket
最新

<20mm

$2,238 交易量

67%

20-30mm

$662 交易量

5%

30-40mm

$1,108 交易量

10%

40-50mm

$1,109 交易量

13%

50-60mm

$1,841 交易量

4%

60-70mm

$805 交易量

2%

70mm+

$1,126 交易量

3%

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors under 20mm total precipitation for London in April 2026 at 65% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally dry start to the month amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over southern England. Met Office observations confirm negligible rainfall at Heathrow—London's reference station—through mid-April, following below-average totals in March for central and southern regions and a prolonged dry spell from late February. Early April delivered record warmth, peaking at 26.5°C in Kew Gardens on April 8, with minimal showers under sunny anticyclonic conditions. Updated Met Office forecasts point to cooler, unsettled patterns with scattered showers through month-end, but ensemble models suggest below-climatological-average accumulation (historical April mean ~42mm), though inherent forecast uncertainty remains from shifting Atlantic lows. Next advisories expected daily.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.

If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$8,891
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors under 20mm total precipitation for London in April 2026 at 65% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally dry start to the month amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over southern England. Met Office observations confirm negligible rainfall at Heathrow—London's reference station—through mid-April, following below-average totals in March for central and southern regions and a prolonged dry spell from late February. Early April delivered record warmth, peaking at 26.5°C in Kew Gardens on April 8, with minimal showers under sunny anticyclonic conditions. Updated Met Office forecasts point to cooler, unsettled patterns with scattered showers through month-end, but ensemble models suggest below-climatological-average accumulation (historical April mean ~42mm), though inherent forecast uncertainty remains from shifting Atlantic lows. Next advisories expected daily.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.

If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$8,891
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Precipitation in London in April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<20mm" at 67%, followed by "40-50mm" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Precipitation in London in April?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Precipitation in London in April?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Precipitation in London in April?" is "<20mm" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "40-50mm" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Precipitation in London in April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.