Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors under 20mm total precipitation for London in April 2026 at 65% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally dry start to the month amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over southern England. Met Office observations confirm negligible rainfall at Heathrow—London's reference station—through mid-April, following below-average totals in March for central and southern regions and a prolonged dry spell from late February. Early April delivered record warmth, peaking at 26.5°C in Kew Gardens on April 8, with minimal showers under sunny anticyclonic conditions. Updated Met Office forecasts point to cooler, unsettled patterns with scattered showers through month-end, but ensemble models suggest below-climatological-average accumulation (historical April mean ~42mm), though inherent forecast uncertainty remains from shifting Atlantic lows. Next advisories expected daily.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Precipitation in London in April?
Precipitation in London in April?
<20mm 66.8%
40-50mm 12.7%
30-40mm 10%
20-30mm 5.3%
<20mm
67%
20-30mm
5%
30-40mm
10%
40-50mm
13%
50-60mm
4%
60-70mm
2%
70mm+
3%
<20mm 66.8%
40-50mm 12.7%
30-40mm 10%
20-30mm 5.3%
<20mm
67%
20-30mm
5%
30-40mm
10%
40-50mm
13%
50-60mm
4%
60-70mm
2%
70mm+
3%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors under 20mm total precipitation for London in April 2026 at 65% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally dry start to the month amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over southern England. Met Office observations confirm negligible rainfall at Heathrow—London's reference station—through mid-April, following below-average totals in March for central and southern regions and a prolonged dry spell from late February. Early April delivered record warmth, peaking at 26.5°C in Kew Gardens on April 8, with minimal showers under sunny anticyclonic conditions. Updated Met Office forecasts point to cooler, unsettled patterns with scattered showers through month-end, but ensemble models suggest below-climatological-average accumulation (historical April mean ~42mm), though inherent forecast uncertainty remains from shifting Atlantic lows. Next advisories expected daily.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions