Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to a 28°C high temperature in Shenzhen on April 11, driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest afternoon forecast update projecting hourly peaks at 28°C through late day under cloudy conditions, south winds at force 2-3, and relative humidity of 65-85% limiting solar insolation and convective heating. Current observations at 17:00 local time show 26.4°C with 81% humidity and no rainfall, aligning with global model ensembles and consistent with April climatology where daily highs average 26-28°C amid increasing cloud cover and the onset of the wet season. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable sudden clearing of skies for prolonged sunshine before sunset, potentially enabling a 29°C spike at a peripheral station, though persistent overcast and sea breeze effects strongly favor resolution at 28°C via official Bao'an measurements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 11?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 11?
28°C 99.8%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$152,605 交易量
$152,605 交易量
2026-04-11
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99.8%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$152,605 交易量
$152,605 交易量
2026-04-11
27°C
$47,662 交易量
<1%
28°C
$33,096 交易量
100%
29°C
$8,007 交易量
<1%
30°C
$7,375 交易量
<1%
31°C
$13,530 交易量
<1%
32°C or higher
$14,025 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to a 28°C high temperature in Shenzhen on April 11, driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest afternoon forecast update projecting hourly peaks at 28°C through late day under cloudy conditions, south winds at force 2-3, and relative humidity of 65-85% limiting solar insolation and convective heating. Current observations at 17:00 local time show 26.4°C with 81% humidity and no rainfall, aligning with global model ensembles and consistent with April climatology where daily highs average 26-28°C amid increasing cloud cover and the onset of the wet season. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable sudden clearing of skies for prolonged sunshine before sunset, potentially enabling a 29°C spike at a peripheral station, though persistent overcast and sea breeze effects strongly favor resolution at 28°C via official Bao'an measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
交易量
$152,605结束日期
2026-04-11市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ET已提议结果: No
争议期
最终
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to a 28°C high temperature in Shenzhen on April 11, driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest afternoon forecast update projecting hourly peaks at 28°C through late day under cloudy conditions, south winds at force 2-3, and relative humidity of 65-85% limiting solar insolation and convective heating. Current observations at 17:00 local time show 26.4°C with 81% humidity and no rainfall, aligning with global model ensembles and consistent with April climatology where daily highs average 26-28°C amid increasing cloud cover and the onset of the wet season. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable sudden clearing of skies for prolonged sunshine before sunset, potentially enabling a 29°C spike at a peripheral station, though persistent overcast and sea breeze effects strongly favor resolution at 28°C via official Bao'an measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$152,605结束日期
2026-04-11市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ET已提议结果: No
争议期
最终
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to a 28°C high temperature in Shenzhen on April 11, driven by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest afternoon forecast update projecting hourly peaks at 28°C through late day under cloudy conditions, south winds at force 2-3, and relative humidity of 65-85% limiting solar insolation and convective heating. Current observations at 17:00 local time show 26.4°C with 81% humidity and no rainfall, aligning with global model ensembles and consistent with April climatology where daily highs average 26-28°C amid increasing cloud cover and the onset of the wet season. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable sudden clearing of skies for prolonged sunshine before sunset, potentially enabling a 29°C spike at a peripheral station, though persistent overcast and sea breeze effects strongly favor resolution at 28°C via official Bao'an measurements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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