The strong Democratic lean of New Jersey's 8th congressional district, anchored in Hudson County and surrounding urban areas, anchors the market's 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Robert Menendez Jr. reinforced this positioning by securing roughly 70% in the June 2026 Democratic primary, demonstrating party consolidation ahead of the November general election against multiple Republican challengers. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition or major shifts in the electorate. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$14,906 交易量
$14,906 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$14,906 交易量
$14,906 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$9,415 交易量
95%
共和党
$5,491 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of New Jersey's 8th congressional district, anchored in Hudson County and surrounding urban areas, anchors the market's 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Robert Menendez Jr. reinforced this positioning by securing roughly 70% in the June 2026 Democratic primary, demonstrating party consolidation ahead of the November general election against multiple Republican challengers. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition or major shifts in the electorate. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$14,906结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of New Jersey's 8th congressional district, anchored in Hudson County and surrounding urban areas, anchors the market's 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Robert Menendez Jr. reinforced this positioning by securing roughly 70% in the June 2026 Democratic primary, demonstrating party consolidation ahead of the November general election against multiple Republican challengers. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition or major shifts in the electorate. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$14,906结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of New Jersey's 8th congressional district, anchored in Hudson County and surrounding urban areas, anchors the market's 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Robert Menendez Jr. reinforced this positioning by securing roughly 70% in the June 2026 Democratic primary, demonstrating party consolidation ahead of the November general election against multiple Republican challengers. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solidly Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition or major shifts in the electorate. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national Republican surge could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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