Latest National Weather Service and model guidance for Dallas on August 7 points to a peak temperature near 100–102°F under sunny, hot conditions with light winds, which has anchored trader consensus on the 100–101°F bin at 47% implied probability. Subtle differences in forecast guidance and potential for minor convective cooling or slight shifts in the steering flow create meaningful uncertainty around the 98–99°F outcome at 39.5%, while historical August climatology near 99°F provides a baseline that reinforces the tight spread between the top two bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on August 7?
100-101°F 47%
98-99°F 40%
102-103°F 10%
96-97°F 7%
$11,547 Vol.
$11,547 Vol.
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
7%
98-99°F
40%
100-101°F
47%
102-103°F
10%
104-105°F
1%
106-107°F
<1%
108-109°F
<1%
110-111°F
<1%
112-113°F
<1%
114°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 47%
98-99°F 40%
102-103°F 10%
96-97°F 7%
$11,547 Vol.
$11,547 Vol.
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
7%
98-99°F
40%
100-101°F
47%
102-103°F
10%
104-105°F
1%
106-107°F
<1%
108-109°F
<1%
110-111°F
<1%
112-113°F
<1%
114°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and model guidance for Dallas on August 7 points to a peak temperature near 100–102°F under sunny, hot conditions with light winds, which has anchored trader consensus on the 100–101°F bin at 47% implied probability. Subtle differences in forecast guidance and potential for minor convective cooling or slight shifts in the steering flow create meaningful uncertainty around the 98–99°F outcome at 39.5%, while historical August climatology near 99°F provides a baseline that reinforces the tight spread between the top two bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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