Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

March 31

98%

Yes98%No2%

June 30

98%

Yes98%No2%

$28M Vol.

Weekly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$24M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

20%

chance

Yes

$3M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$6M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

41%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

$30M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

chance

Yes

$337K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

10%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Monthly

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

12%

Yes12%No88%

34%

Yes34%No66%

$239K Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

March 31

Yes3%No97%

December 31

39%

Yes39%No61%

$689K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

16%

chance

Yes

$1M Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

March 31

Yes3%No97%

December 31

29%

Yes29%No71%

$3M Vol.

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

chance

Yes

$46K Vol.

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

20%

chance

Yes

$128K Vol.

Ukraine election called by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes1%No99%

June 30, 2026

Yes9%No91%

$1M Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

United Kingdom

82%

Yes82%No18%

Saudi Arabia

50%

Yes50%No50%

$109K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

chance

Yes

$298K Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes4%No96%

June 30, 2026

31%

Yes31%No69%

$2M Vol.

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

June 30, 2026

Yes6%No94%

December 31, 2026

14%

Yes14%No86%

$2M Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

15%

chance

Yes

$80K Vol.

All

Iran

Oil

Ukraine

Venezuela

Ukraine Peace Deal

Ukraine Map

Gaza

Israel

Sudan

China

Thailand-Cambodia

Middle East

Foreign Policy

India-Pakistan

South Korea

Yemen

Syria

Turkey

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

March 31

98%

Yes98%No2%

June 30

98%

Yes98%No2%

$28M Vol.

Weekly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$24M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

20%

chance

Yes

$3M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$6M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

41%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

$30M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

chance

Yes

$337K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

10%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Monthly

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

12%

Yes12%No88%

34%

Yes34%No66%

$239K Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

March 31

Yes3%No97%

December 31

39%

Yes39%No61%

$689K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

16%

chance

Yes

$1M Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

March 31

Yes3%No97%

December 31

29%

Yes29%No71%

$3M Vol.

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

chance

Yes

$46K Vol.

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

20%

chance

Yes

$128K Vol.

Ukraine election called by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes1%No99%

June 30, 2026

Yes9%No91%

$1M Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

United Kingdom

82%

Yes82%No18%

Saudi Arabia

50%

Yes50%No50%

$109K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

chance

Yes

$298K Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes4%No96%

June 30, 2026

31%

Yes31%No69%

$2M Vol.

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

June 30, 2026

Yes6%No94%

December 31, 2026

14%

Yes14%No86%

$2M Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

15%

chance

Yes

$80K Vol.

Foreign Policy Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

US strike on Mexico by...?

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Ukraine election called by...?

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

US strike on Mexico by...?

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Ukraine election called by...?

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?