The Republican Party holds a commanding 94.5% implied probability in the PA-13 House election market due to the district’s rural South Central Pennsylvania composition, which encompasses areas like Johnstown, Altoona, and Gettysburg and has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent John Joyce, first elected in 2018, secured the nomination without significant primary opposition in May 2026, while Democrat Beth Farnham advanced on the other side. Forecasters rate the seat as Likely or Lean Republican, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising edges, and voter registration patterns that have produced double-digit Republican margins historically. With the November 3, 2026 general election still months away, trader consensus leaves limited room for an upset unless a national Democratic wave materializes, late-cycle developments alter candidate viability, or turnout dynamics shift dramatically in this low-competition district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,316 Vol.
$15,316 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
95%
民主党
6%
$15,316 Vol.
$15,316 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$9,886 Vol.
95%
民主党
$5,430 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a commanding 94.5% implied probability in the PA-13 House election market due to the district’s rural South Central Pennsylvania composition, which encompasses areas like Johnstown, Altoona, and Gettysburg and has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent John Joyce, first elected in 2018, secured the nomination without significant primary opposition in May 2026, while Democrat Beth Farnham advanced on the other side. Forecasters rate the seat as Likely or Lean Republican, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising edges, and voter registration patterns that have produced double-digit Republican margins historically.
With the November 3, 2026 general election still months away, trader consensus leaves limited room for an upset unless a national Democratic wave materializes, late-cycle developments alter candidate viability, or turnout dynamics shift dramatically in this low-competition district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$15,316終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a commanding 94.5% implied probability in the PA-13 House election market due to the district’s rural South Central Pennsylvania composition, which encompasses areas like Johnstown, Altoona, and Gettysburg and has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent John Joyce, first elected in 2018, secured the nomination without significant primary opposition in May 2026, while Democrat Beth Farnham advanced on the other side. Forecasters rate the seat as Likely or Lean Republican, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising edges, and voter registration patterns that have produced double-digit Republican margins historically.
With the November 3, 2026 general election still months away, trader consensus leaves limited room for an upset unless a national Democratic wave materializes, late-cycle developments alter candidate viability, or turnout dynamics shift dramatically in this low-competition district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,316終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party holds a commanding 94.5% implied probability in the PA-13 House election market due to the district’s rural South Central Pennsylvania composition, which encompasses areas like Johnstown, Altoona, and Gettysburg and has consistently favored Republican candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent John Joyce, first elected in 2018, secured the nomination without significant primary opposition in May 2026, while Democrat Beth Farnham advanced on the other side. Forecasters rate the seat as Likely or Lean Republican, reflecting the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising edges, and voter registration patterns that have produced double-digit Republican margins historically. With the November 3, 2026 general election still months away, trader consensus leaves limited room for an upset unless a national Democratic wave materializes, late-cycle developments alter candidate viability, or turnout dynamics shift dramatically in this low-competition district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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