**Democratic candidates hold a 71% implied probability of winning New York's 17th congressional district in the November 2026 general election, compared with 47.5% for Republicans.** The Hudson Valley seat, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by nonpartisan analysts, features incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler facing a crowded Democratic primary on June 23. Multiple Democratic contenders, including Cait Conley, Beth Davidson, and Effie Phillips-Staley, have raised substantial funds and secured endorsements, with internal polling showing competitive positioning among them. Lawler advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled. The district's narrow partisan lean, combined with Democratic targeting and fundraising advantages, supports trader consensus that the seat remains highly competitive and within Democratic reach despite the incumbent's position.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
71%
Republican Party
51%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$304 거래량
71%
Republican Party
$178 거래량
51%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic candidates hold a 71% implied probability of winning New York's 17th congressional district in the November 2026 general election, compared with 47.5% for Republicans.** The Hudson Valley seat, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by nonpartisan analysts, features incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler facing a crowded Democratic primary on June 23. Multiple Democratic contenders, including Cait Conley, Beth Davidson, and Effie Phillips-Staley, have raised substantial funds and secured endorsements, with internal polling showing competitive positioning among them. Lawler advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled. The district's narrow partisan lean, combined with Democratic targeting and fundraising advantages, supports trader consensus that the seat remains highly competitive and within Democratic reach despite the incumbent's position.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
거래량
$481종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic candidates hold a 71% implied probability of winning New York's 17th congressional district in the November 2026 general election, compared with 47.5% for Republicans.** The Hudson Valley seat, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by nonpartisan analysts, features incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler facing a crowded Democratic primary on June 23. Multiple Democratic contenders, including Cait Conley, Beth Davidson, and Effie Phillips-Staley, have raised substantial funds and secured endorsements, with internal polling showing competitive positioning among them. Lawler advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled. The district's narrow partisan lean, combined with Democratic targeting and fundraising advantages, supports trader consensus that the seat remains highly competitive and within Democratic reach despite the incumbent's position.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$481종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic candidates hold a 71% implied probability of winning New York's 17th congressional district in the November 2026 general election, compared with 47.5% for Republicans.** The Hudson Valley seat, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by nonpartisan analysts, features incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler facing a crowded Democratic primary on June 23. Multiple Democratic contenders, including Cait Conley, Beth Davidson, and Effie Phillips-Staley, have raised substantial funds and secured endorsements, with internal polling showing competitive positioning among them. Lawler advanced unopposed after the Republican primary was canceled. The district's narrow partisan lean, combined with Democratic targeting and fundraising advantages, supports trader consensus that the seat remains highly competitive and within Democratic reach despite the incumbent's position.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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