Monsoon cloud cover and scattered light rain or thundershowers over Uttar Pradesh continue to moderate daytime heating in Lucknow, positioning the 31–33°C range as the market’s leading outcomes with combined implied probability near 88%. Official IMD guidance forecasts a maximum of 35°C on August 26 under partly cloudy skies with light rain possible, while recent model runs and historical analogs from the second half of August show actual peaks frequently 2–3°C below that due to persistent humidity above 75% and reduced insolation. Traders appear to weight the established pattern of suppressed highs during active monsoon spells more heavily than the drier-clearing scenario that would allow temperatures to reach 34°C or higher, with new short-range forecast updates and rainfall observations expected to refine odds ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月26日勒克瑙的最高溫度?
32°C 43%
31°C 27%
33°C 20%
30°C 12%
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
8%
30°C
12%
31°C
27%
32°C
43%
33°C
20%
34°C
11%
35°C
4%
36°C or higher
1%
32°C 43%
31°C 27%
33°C 20%
30°C 12%
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
8%
30°C
12%
31°C
27%
32°C
43%
33°C
20%
34°C
11%
35°C
4%
36°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Monsoon cloud cover and scattered light rain or thundershowers over Uttar Pradesh continue to moderate daytime heating in Lucknow, positioning the 31–33°C range as the market’s leading outcomes with combined implied probability near 88%. Official IMD guidance forecasts a maximum of 35°C on August 26 under partly cloudy skies with light rain possible, while recent model runs and historical analogs from the second half of August show actual peaks frequently 2–3°C below that due to persistent humidity above 75% and reduced insolation. Traders appear to weight the established pattern of suppressed highs during active monsoon spells more heavily than the drier-clearing scenario that would allow temperatures to reach 34°C or higher, with new short-range forecast updates and rainfall observations expected to refine odds ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions