Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Poland's IMGW indicate Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 clustering near 17-18°C, driving the tight trader consensus with 30% implied probability for 18°C and 29% for 17°C. This stems from a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe promoting subsidence, clear skies, and enhanced insolation, potentially overcoming recent cooler anomalies (highs dipping to 8-15°C mid-April after an early 20.9°C peak on April 5). Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover timing and southerly wind strength, which could cap peaks at 16-17°C or push to 19°C with optimal diurnal heating. Dry conditions persist, but new ECMWF runs and IMGW updates expected within 24 hours may sharpen resolution amid typical spring variability around the 13°C climatological average.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
17°C 32%
18°C 31%
19°C 21%
16°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
14%
17°C
32%
18°C
31%
19°C
21%
20°C or higher
8%
17°C 32%
18°C 31%
19°C 21%
16°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
10°C or below
$1,509 交易量
<1%
11°C
$1,348 交易量
<1%
12°C
$685 交易量
1%
13°C
$223 交易量
1%
14°C
$49 交易量
2%
15°C
$54 交易量
2%
16°C
$23 交易量
14%
17°C
$26 交易量
32%
18°C
$32 交易量
31%
19°C
$89 交易量
21%
20°C or higher
$112 交易量
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Poland's IMGW indicate Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 clustering near 17-18°C, driving the tight trader consensus with 30% implied probability for 18°C and 29% for 17°C. This stems from a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe promoting subsidence, clear skies, and enhanced insolation, potentially overcoming recent cooler anomalies (highs dipping to 8-15°C mid-April after an early 20.9°C peak on April 5). Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover timing and southerly wind strength, which could cap peaks at 16-17°C or push to 19°C with optimal diurnal heating. Dry conditions persist, but new ECMWF runs and IMGW updates expected within 24 hours may sharpen resolution amid typical spring variability around the 13°C climatological average.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$4,151結束日期
2026-04-18市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Poland's IMGW indicate Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 clustering near 17-18°C, driving the tight trader consensus with 30% implied probability for 18°C and 29% for 17°C. This stems from a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe promoting subsidence, clear skies, and enhanced insolation, potentially overcoming recent cooler anomalies (highs dipping to 8-15°C mid-April after an early 20.9°C peak on April 5). Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover timing and southerly wind strength, which could cap peaks at 16-17°C or push to 19°C with optimal diurnal heating. Dry conditions persist, but new ECMWF runs and IMGW updates expected within 24 hours may sharpen resolution amid typical spring variability around the 13°C climatological average.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$4,151結束日期
2026-04-18市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Poland's IMGW indicate Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 clustering near 17-18°C, driving the tight trader consensus with 30% implied probability for 18°C and 29% for 17°C. This stems from a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe promoting subsidence, clear skies, and enhanced insolation, potentially overcoming recent cooler anomalies (highs dipping to 8-15°C mid-April after an early 20.9°C peak on April 5). Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover timing and southerly wind strength, which could cap peaks at 16-17°C or push to 19°C with optimal diurnal heating. Dry conditions persist, but new ECMWF runs and IMGW updates expected within 24 hours may sharpen resolution amid typical spring variability around the 13°C climatological average.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions