Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, driven by a surge in preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reports exceeding 300 year-to-date as of mid-April—well above the typical early-season pace of around 200. This reflects intense severe convective storm activity, including deadly March 5–7 and 10–12 outbreaks across Oklahoma, Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana (11 fatalities total), plus an ongoing April 12–15 event spawning EF2–EF3 tornadoes in Kansas and Wisconsin. ENSO-neutral conditions support strong wind shear and Gulf moisture clashes fueling supercells, aligning with long-range outlooks like AccuWeather's 1050–1250 projection. Uncertainty persists into peak May–June, with upcoming SPC convective outlooks key to refining trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1250+ 37%
1000–1049 21.0%
1150–1199 7.9%
<950 7%
$64,519 交易量
$64,519 交易量
2027-01-10
<950
7%
950–999
4%
1000–1049
21%
1050–1099
5%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
8%
1200–1249
11%
1250+
37%
1250+ 37%
1000–1049 21.0%
1150–1199 7.9%
<950 7%
$64,519 交易量
$64,519 交易量
2027-01-10
<950
$21,622 交易量
7%
950–999
$2,049 交易量
4%
1000–1049
$1,534 交易量
21%
1050–1099
$7,106 交易量
5%
1100–1149
$1,375 交易量
4%
1150–1199
$1,708 交易量
8%
1200–1249
$14,432 交易量
11%
1250+
$14,692 交易量
37%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, driven by a surge in preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reports exceeding 300 year-to-date as of mid-April—well above the typical early-season pace of around 200. This reflects intense severe convective storm activity, including deadly March 5–7 and 10–12 outbreaks across Oklahoma, Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana (11 fatalities total), plus an ongoing April 12–15 event spawning EF2–EF3 tornadoes in Kansas and Wisconsin. ENSO-neutral conditions support strong wind shear and Gulf moisture clashes fueling supercells, aligning with long-range outlooks like AccuWeather's 1050–1250 projection. Uncertainty persists into peak May–June, with upcoming SPC convective outlooks key to refining trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$64,519结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, driven by a surge in preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reports exceeding 300 year-to-date as of mid-April—well above the typical early-season pace of around 200. This reflects intense severe convective storm activity, including deadly March 5–7 and 10–12 outbreaks across Oklahoma, Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana (11 fatalities total), plus an ongoing April 12–15 event spawning EF2–EF3 tornadoes in Kansas and Wisconsin. ENSO-neutral conditions support strong wind shear and Gulf moisture clashes fueling supercells, aligning with long-range outlooks like AccuWeather's 1050–1250 projection. Uncertainty persists into peak May–June, with upcoming SPC convective outlooks key to refining trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$64,519结束日期
2027-01-10市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, driven by a surge in preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reports exceeding 300 year-to-date as of mid-April—well above the typical early-season pace of around 200. This reflects intense severe convective storm activity, including deadly March 5–7 and 10–12 outbreaks across Oklahoma, Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana (11 fatalities total), plus an ongoing April 12–15 event spawning EF2–EF3 tornadoes in Kansas and Wisconsin. ENSO-neutral conditions support strong wind shear and Gulf moisture clashes fueling supercells, aligning with long-range outlooks like AccuWeather's 1050–1250 projection. Uncertainty persists into peak May–June, with upcoming SPC convective outlooks key to refining trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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