The strong Republican tilt of Texas's 2nd congressional district, which favored Donald Trump by roughly 21 points in 2024 and has consistently delivered double-digit margins for GOP candidates, underpins the 86% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Steve Toth secured the nomination after defeating four-term incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, consolidating conservative support ahead of the November general election against Democrat Shaun Finnie. Cook Political Report rates the open seat Solid Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns and limited Democratic polling traction in the Houston suburbs and surrounding areas. No major shifts in voter registration, endorsements, or campaign developments have altered this positioning in recent months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$11,942 Vol.
$11,942 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
86%
民主党
12%
$11,942 Vol.
$11,942 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$6,099 Vol.
86%
民主党
$5,842 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican tilt of Texas's 2nd congressional district, which favored Donald Trump by roughly 21 points in 2024 and has consistently delivered double-digit margins for GOP candidates, underpins the 86% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Steve Toth secured the nomination after defeating four-term incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, consolidating conservative support ahead of the November general election against Democrat Shaun Finnie. Cook Political Report rates the open seat Solid Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns and limited Democratic polling traction in the Houston suburbs and surrounding areas. No major shifts in voter registration, endorsements, or campaign developments have altered this positioning in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$11,942終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican tilt of Texas's 2nd congressional district, which favored Donald Trump by roughly 21 points in 2024 and has consistently delivered double-digit margins for GOP candidates, underpins the 86% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Steve Toth secured the nomination after defeating four-term incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, consolidating conservative support ahead of the November general election against Democrat Shaun Finnie. Cook Political Report rates the open seat Solid Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns and limited Democratic polling traction in the Houston suburbs and surrounding areas. No major shifts in voter registration, endorsements, or campaign developments have altered this positioning in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$11,942終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican tilt of Texas's 2nd congressional district, which favored Donald Trump by roughly 21 points in 2024 and has consistently delivered double-digit margins for GOP candidates, underpins the 86% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Steve Toth secured the nomination after defeating four-term incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 primary, consolidating conservative support ahead of the November general election against Democrat Shaun Finnie. Cook Political Report rates the open seat Solid Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns and limited Democratic polling traction in the Houston suburbs and surrounding areas. No major shifts in voter registration, endorsements, or campaign developments have altered this positioning in recent months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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