Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's commanding position in the deeply blue CA-16—rated D+26 partisan voter index, the 27th most Democratic district nationally—drives trader consensus heavily favoring a Democratic hold at 93.5%, reinforced by his dominant 58%-42% 2024 victory over fellow Democrat Evan Low and fundraising superiority with nearly $3 million raised and $2 million cash on hand as of early 2026. Recent certified candidate filings on March 26 revealed weak Republican challengers, law student Kevin Johnson and investor Peter Soule, alongside independent Jotham Stein, none posing credible threats per Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Scenarios challenging this include a top-two primary upset on June 2 sending two non-Democrats to the November general, Liccardo scandal, or overwhelming national GOP midterm wave.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$65,447 거래량
$65,447 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
6%
$65,447 거래량
$65,447 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$44,735 거래량
94%
공화당
$20,712 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's commanding position in the deeply blue CA-16—rated D+26 partisan voter index, the 27th most Democratic district nationally—drives trader consensus heavily favoring a Democratic hold at 93.5%, reinforced by his dominant 58%-42% 2024 victory over fellow Democrat Evan Low and fundraising superiority with nearly $3 million raised and $2 million cash on hand as of early 2026. Recent certified candidate filings on March 26 revealed weak Republican challengers, law student Kevin Johnson and investor Peter Soule, alongside independent Jotham Stein, none posing credible threats per Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Scenarios challenging this include a top-two primary upset on June 2 sending two non-Democrats to the November general, Liccardo scandal, or overwhelming national GOP midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$65,447종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's commanding position in the deeply blue CA-16—rated D+26 partisan voter index, the 27th most Democratic district nationally—drives trader consensus heavily favoring a Democratic hold at 93.5%, reinforced by his dominant 58%-42% 2024 victory over fellow Democrat Evan Low and fundraising superiority with nearly $3 million raised and $2 million cash on hand as of early 2026. Recent certified candidate filings on March 26 revealed weak Republican challengers, law student Kevin Johnson and investor Peter Soule, alongside independent Jotham Stein, none posing credible threats per Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Scenarios challenging this include a top-two primary upset on June 2 sending two non-Democrats to the November general, Liccardo scandal, or overwhelming national GOP midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$65,447종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's commanding position in the deeply blue CA-16—rated D+26 partisan voter index, the 27th most Democratic district nationally—drives trader consensus heavily favoring a Democratic hold at 93.5%, reinforced by his dominant 58%-42% 2024 victory over fellow Democrat Evan Low and fundraising superiority with nearly $3 million raised and $2 million cash on hand as of early 2026. Recent certified candidate filings on March 26 revealed weak Republican challengers, law student Kevin Johnson and investor Peter Soule, alongside independent Jotham Stein, none posing credible threats per Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Scenarios challenging this include a top-two primary upset on June 2 sending two non-Democrats to the November general, Liccardo scandal, or overwhelming national GOP midterm wave.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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