Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-48—a former Republican stronghold in San Diego's East County—to a D+2 partisan lean per Cook Political Report, fueling trader consensus for a Democratic general election win in this open seat after Rep. Darrell Issa's retirement. Cook rates it a Toss Up ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where a fragmented Democratic field of nine candidates risks vote-splitting against fewer GOP contenders like leader Jim Desmond. A mid-April SurveyUSA poll showed Desmond at 25% amid 25% undecideds, but competitive fundraising—Dem Brandon Riker atop cash-on-hand—bolsters hopes for Dem advancement to November, outweighing primary risks in traders' eyes despite the discrepancy with limited polling.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
85%
Republican Party
13%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$5,754 거래량
85%
Republican Party
$4,139 거래량
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-48—a former Republican stronghold in San Diego's East County—to a D+2 partisan lean per Cook Political Report, fueling trader consensus for a Democratic general election win in this open seat after Rep. Darrell Issa's retirement. Cook rates it a Toss Up ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where a fragmented Democratic field of nine candidates risks vote-splitting against fewer GOP contenders like leader Jim Desmond. A mid-April SurveyUSA poll showed Desmond at 25% amid 25% undecideds, but competitive fundraising—Dem Brandon Riker atop cash-on-hand—bolsters hopes for Dem advancement to November, outweighing primary risks in traders' eyes despite the discrepancy with limited polling.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
거래량
$9,893종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-48—a former Republican stronghold in San Diego's East County—to a D+2 partisan lean per Cook Political Report, fueling trader consensus for a Democratic general election win in this open seat after Rep. Darrell Issa's retirement. Cook rates it a Toss Up ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where a fragmented Democratic field of nine candidates risks vote-splitting against fewer GOP contenders like leader Jim Desmond. A mid-April SurveyUSA poll showed Desmond at 25% amid 25% undecideds, but competitive fundraising—Dem Brandon Riker atop cash-on-hand—bolsters hopes for Dem advancement to November, outweighing primary risks in traders' eyes despite the discrepancy with limited polling.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$9,893종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-48—a former Republican stronghold in San Diego's East County—to a D+2 partisan lean per Cook Political Report, fueling trader consensus for a Democratic general election win in this open seat after Rep. Darrell Issa's retirement. Cook rates it a Toss Up ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where a fragmented Democratic field of nine candidates risks vote-splitting against fewer GOP contenders like leader Jim Desmond. A mid-April SurveyUSA poll showed Desmond at 25% amid 25% undecideds, but competitive fundraising—Dem Brandon Riker atop cash-on-hand—bolsters hopes for Dem advancement to November, outweighing primary risks in traders' eyes despite the discrepancy with limited polling.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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