Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18, with 96.8% implied probability, reflecting strong alignment across forecast models from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international sources like AccuWeather and Weather.com projecting daytime highs of 29–30°C. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Mexico fostering clear skies and radiative heating during the late dry season, where April climatological averages already hover near 26°C—exceeded in 80% of historical observations. Recent observational data shows warming trends, with April 16 highs around 23°C amid partly cloudy conditions giving way to sunnier outlooks. Realistic challenges include incoming Pacific moisture triggering heavier chubascos (5–25 mm showers) or unforecast northerly winds increasing cloud cover, potentially capping peaks below 26°C; monitor SMN's 96-hour updates for refinements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 18?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 18?
26°C or higher 95.4%
25°C 1.6%
24°C 1.5%
20°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
2%
26°C or higher
95%
26°C or higher 95.4%
25°C 1.6%
24°C 1.5%
20°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
16°C or below
$623 交易量
<1%
17°C
$454 交易量
<1%
18°C
$503 交易量
<1%
19°C
$577 交易量
<1%
20°C
$646 交易量
1%
21°C
$2,069 交易量
1%
22°C
$1,395 交易量
<1%
23°C
$521 交易量
1%
24°C
$1,023 交易量
2%
25°C
$408 交易量
2%
26°C or higher
$803 交易量
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18, with 96.8% implied probability, reflecting strong alignment across forecast models from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international sources like AccuWeather and Weather.com projecting daytime highs of 29–30°C. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Mexico fostering clear skies and radiative heating during the late dry season, where April climatological averages already hover near 26°C—exceeded in 80% of historical observations. Recent observational data shows warming trends, with April 16 highs around 23°C amid partly cloudy conditions giving way to sunnier outlooks. Realistic challenges include incoming Pacific moisture triggering heavier chubascos (5–25 mm showers) or unforecast northerly winds increasing cloud cover, potentially capping peaks below 26°C; monitor SMN's 96-hour updates for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 16, 2026, 1:53 AM ET
交易量
$9,013結束日期
2026-04-18市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 1:53 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18, with 96.8% implied probability, reflecting strong alignment across forecast models from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international sources like AccuWeather and Weather.com projecting daytime highs of 29–30°C. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Mexico fostering clear skies and radiative heating during the late dry season, where April climatological averages already hover near 26°C—exceeded in 80% of historical observations. Recent observational data shows warming trends, with April 16 highs around 23°C amid partly cloudy conditions giving way to sunnier outlooks. Realistic challenges include incoming Pacific moisture triggering heavier chubascos (5–25 mm showers) or unforecast northerly winds increasing cloud cover, potentially capping peaks below 26°C; monitor SMN's 96-hour updates for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$9,013結束日期
2026-04-18市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 1:53 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18, with 96.8% implied probability, reflecting strong alignment across forecast models from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international sources like AccuWeather and Weather.com projecting daytime highs of 29–30°C. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Mexico fostering clear skies and radiative heating during the late dry season, where April climatological averages already hover near 26°C—exceeded in 80% of historical observations. Recent observational data shows warming trends, with April 16 highs around 23°C amid partly cloudy conditions giving way to sunnier outlooks. Realistic challenges include incoming Pacific moisture triggering heavier chubascos (5–25 mm showers) or unforecast northerly winds increasing cloud cover, potentially capping peaks below 26°C; monitor SMN's 96-hour updates for refinements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions