Latest National Weather Service forecasts for New York City indicate a high temperature clustering around 78-79°F on April 17, driving trader consensus with 35.5% implied probability on that outcome, as high-pressure ridging builds over the Northeast to deliver warm southerly flow and ample sunshine for peak diurnal heating. Over the past 24 hours, updated GFS and ECMWF model runs have converged on this warmer outlook—up slightly from prior ensembles—following observed above-normal temperatures through April 15 per recent NWS climate summaries, amid low wind shear and minimal cloud interference. Competing odds reflect uncertainty in boundary layer mixing, with 24.5% on 77°F or below if cooler marine air intrudes, and 23.5% on 80-81°F should heating exceed expectations. Watch the 00Z model refresh tonight for potential shifts ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於紐約市4月17日的最高溫度?
紐約市4月17日的最高溫度?
78-79華氏度 37%
77°F或以下 26%
80-81°F 24%
82-83°F 14%
$25,786 交易量
$25,786 交易量
77°F或以下
26%
78-79華氏度
37%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
5%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91華氏度
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F或更高
<1%
78-79華氏度 37%
77°F或以下 26%
80-81°F 24%
82-83°F 14%
$25,786 交易量
$25,786 交易量
77°F或以下
26%
78-79華氏度
37%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
5%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91華氏度
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F或更高
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest National Weather Service forecasts for New York City indicate a high temperature clustering around 78-79°F on April 17, driving trader consensus with 35.5% implied probability on that outcome, as high-pressure ridging builds over the Northeast to deliver warm southerly flow and ample sunshine for peak diurnal heating. Over the past 24 hours, updated GFS and ECMWF model runs have converged on this warmer outlook—up slightly from prior ensembles—following observed above-normal temperatures through April 15 per recent NWS climate summaries, amid low wind shear and minimal cloud interference. Competing odds reflect uncertainty in boundary layer mixing, with 24.5% on 77°F or below if cooler marine air intrudes, and 23.5% on 80-81°F should heating exceed expectations. Watch the 00Z model refresh tonight for potential shifts ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions