Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 14°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on April 13 at 35.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering tightly around 13–15°C amid mild spring conditions in Poland's humid continental climate. Recent model runs reflect stable westerly air flows and high-pressure influence, with minimal spread indicating low intensification risk, aligning with early April climatological averages of 13.1°C highs from IMGW monitoring data. April so far has been slightly below normal at 8.7°C mean versus 9.2°C, following a brief warm spike to 20.9°C on April 5 but cooling recently. New forecast updates from ECMWF (twice daily) and GFS could refine probabilities before resolution via Wunderground observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 13?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 13?
14°C 35%
13°C 26%
15°C 26%
16°C 12%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
26%
14°C
35%
15°C
26%
16°C
12%
17°C
4%
18°C or higher
2%
14°C 35%
13°C 26%
15°C 26%
16°C 12%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
26%
14°C
35%
15°C
26%
16°C
12%
17°C
4%
18°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 9, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 14°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on April 13 at 35.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering tightly around 13–15°C amid mild spring conditions in Poland's humid continental climate. Recent model runs reflect stable westerly air flows and high-pressure influence, with minimal spread indicating low intensification risk, aligning with early April climatological averages of 13.1°C highs from IMGW monitoring data. April so far has been slightly below normal at 8.7°C mean versus 9.2°C, following a brief warm spike to 20.9°C on April 5 but cooling recently. New forecast updates from ECMWF (twice daily) and GFS could refine probabilities before resolution via Wunderground observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions