Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting Tokyo's highest temperature on April 13 around 22°C, with a 35.5% implied probability for 23°C or higher edging out 33.5% for exactly 22°C and 20.5% for 21°C. This tight clustering stems from uncertainty in cloud cover and southerly wind strength, which could boost daytime heating by 1-2°C under clearer skies or cap it via reduced solar insolation. Recent warming—highs near 23-27°C on April 10-11 amid high-pressure ridging—supports the mild bias above historical mid-April averages of 20°C, though frontal passage risks temper it. JMA updates expected April 12 will refine resolution odds based on Tokyo station observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 13?
23°C or higher 40%
22°C 27%
21°C 20%
20°C 9%
$19,961 交易量
$19,961 交易量
2026-04-13
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
9%
21°C
20%
22°C
27%
23°C or higher
40%
23°C or higher 40%
22°C 27%
21°C 20%
20°C 9%
$19,961 交易量
$19,961 交易量
2026-04-13
13°C or below
$1,859 交易量
<1%
14°C
$1,368 交易量
<1%
15°C
$1,329 交易量
<1%
16°C
$1,164 交易量
<1%
17°C
$2,098 交易量
<1%
18°C
$2,997 交易量
1%
19°C
$1,714 交易量
5%
20°C
$1,499 交易量
9%
21°C
$1,688 交易量
20%
22°C
$1,769 交易量
27%
23°C or higher
$2,476 交易量
40%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting Tokyo's highest temperature on April 13 around 22°C, with a 35.5% implied probability for 23°C or higher edging out 33.5% for exactly 22°C and 20.5% for 21°C. This tight clustering stems from uncertainty in cloud cover and southerly wind strength, which could boost daytime heating by 1-2°C under clearer skies or cap it via reduced solar insolation. Recent warming—highs near 23-27°C on April 10-11 amid high-pressure ridging—supports the mild bias above historical mid-April averages of 20°C, though frontal passage risks temper it. JMA updates expected April 12 will refine resolution odds based on Tokyo station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 9, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
交易量
$19,961结束日期
2026-04-13市场开放时间
Apr 9, 2026, 12:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting Tokyo's highest temperature on April 13 around 22°C, with a 35.5% implied probability for 23°C or higher edging out 33.5% for exactly 22°C and 20.5% for 21°C. This tight clustering stems from uncertainty in cloud cover and southerly wind strength, which could boost daytime heating by 1-2°C under clearer skies or cap it via reduced solar insolation. Recent warming—highs near 23-27°C on April 10-11 amid high-pressure ridging—supports the mild bias above historical mid-April averages of 20°C, though frontal passage risks temper it. JMA updates expected April 12 will refine resolution odds based on Tokyo station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$19,961结束日期
2026-04-13市场开放时间
Apr 9, 2026, 12:10 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and global model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF projecting Tokyo's highest temperature on April 13 around 22°C, with a 35.5% implied probability for 23°C or higher edging out 33.5% for exactly 22°C and 20.5% for 21°C. This tight clustering stems from uncertainty in cloud cover and southerly wind strength, which could boost daytime heating by 1-2°C under clearer skies or cap it via reduced solar insolation. Recent warming—highs near 23-27°C on April 10-11 amid high-pressure ridging—supports the mild bias above historical mid-April averages of 20°C, though frontal passage risks temper it. JMA updates expected April 12 will refine resolution odds based on Tokyo station observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题