Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on April 11, driven by confirmed hourly observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) METAR reports peaking at 12°C mid-afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles from the past 24 hours projected this precise peak before aligning with real-time data, reflecting a stable cold air mass over central Europe with minimal diurnal variability typical for mid-April climatology (historical averages around 13°C). As evening cooling accelerates under radiational loss—current readings near 2°C late day—rebound scenarios are improbable barring anomalous warm advection or station data revisions, both precluded by upper-air soundings showing persistent stability. IMGW monitoring corroborates no upward trends ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 11?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 11?
12°C 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$83,890 交易量
$83,890 交易量
2026-04-11
12°C
100%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$83,890 交易量
$83,890 交易量
2026-04-11
12°C
$13,428 交易量
100%
13°C
$10,765 交易量
<1%
14°C
$6,624 交易量
<1%
15°C
$5,197 交易量
<1%
16°C
$4,327 交易量
<1%
17°C or higher
$3,997 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on April 11, driven by confirmed hourly observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) METAR reports peaking at 12°C mid-afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles from the past 24 hours projected this precise peak before aligning with real-time data, reflecting a stable cold air mass over central Europe with minimal diurnal variability typical for mid-April climatology (historical averages around 13°C). As evening cooling accelerates under radiational loss—current readings near 2°C late day—rebound scenarios are improbable barring anomalous warm advection or station data revisions, both precluded by upper-air soundings showing persistent stability. IMGW monitoring corroborates no upward trends ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
交易量
$83,890结束日期
2026-04-11市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on April 11, driven by confirmed hourly observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) METAR reports peaking at 12°C mid-afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles from the past 24 hours projected this precise peak before aligning with real-time data, reflecting a stable cold air mass over central Europe with minimal diurnal variability typical for mid-April climatology (historical averages around 13°C). As evening cooling accelerates under radiational loss—current readings near 2°C late day—rebound scenarios are improbable barring anomalous warm advection or station data revisions, both precluded by upper-air soundings showing persistent stability. IMGW monitoring corroborates no upward trends ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$83,890结束日期
2026-04-11市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 1:05 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 12°C in Warsaw on April 11, driven by confirmed hourly observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) METAR reports peaking at 12°C mid-afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles from the past 24 hours projected this precise peak before aligning with real-time data, reflecting a stable cold air mass over central Europe with minimal diurnal variability typical for mid-April climatology (historical averages around 13°C). As evening cooling accelerates under radiational loss—current readings near 2°C late day—rebound scenarios are improbable barring anomalous warm advection or station data revisions, both precluded by upper-air soundings showing persistent stability. IMGW monitoring corroborates no upward trends ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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