Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy seeks a fifth term in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district, which was redrawn in late 2025 and carries an estimated Republican lean equivalent to a 14-point Trump margin in 2024 simulations. Murphy advanced unopposed in the March 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. secured the nomination after defeating a primary challenger. The district's structural advantages, combined with Murphy's established record and fundraising edge, underpin trader consensus around an 85 percent probability for the Republican nominee. Limited recent campaign activity or polling shifts have left the implied probability stable heading into the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$18,994 交易量
$18,994 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
86%
民主党
14%
$18,994 交易量
$18,994 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$14,269 交易量
86%
民主党
$4,725 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy seeks a fifth term in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district, which was redrawn in late 2025 and carries an estimated Republican lean equivalent to a 14-point Trump margin in 2024 simulations. Murphy advanced unopposed in the March 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. secured the nomination after defeating a primary challenger. The district's structural advantages, combined with Murphy's established record and fundraising edge, underpin trader consensus around an 85 percent probability for the Republican nominee. Limited recent campaign activity or polling shifts have left the implied probability stable heading into the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$18,994结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy seeks a fifth term in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district, which was redrawn in late 2025 and carries an estimated Republican lean equivalent to a 14-point Trump margin in 2024 simulations. Murphy advanced unopposed in the March 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. secured the nomination after defeating a primary challenger. The district's structural advantages, combined with Murphy's established record and fundraising edge, underpin trader consensus around an 85 percent probability for the Republican nominee. Limited recent campaign activity or polling shifts have left the implied probability stable heading into the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$18,994结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy seeks a fifth term in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district, which was redrawn in late 2025 and carries an estimated Republican lean equivalent to a 14-point Trump margin in 2024 simulations. Murphy advanced unopposed in the March 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. secured the nomination after defeating a primary challenger. The district's structural advantages, combined with Murphy's established record and fundraising edge, underpin trader consensus around an 85 percent probability for the Republican nominee. Limited recent campaign activity or polling shifts have left the implied probability stable heading into the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题