Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy faces Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district on November 3, 2026. Redistricting completed in October 2025 adjusted boundaries, reducing the district’s Republican tilt so that 2024 presidential results would have shown a 14-point Trump margin rather than a larger advantage. Murphy, seeking a fifth term, benefits from incumbency, substantial campaign reserves, and the absence of a competitive Republican primary. Smith prevailed in the March 2026 Democratic primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat that Cook Political Report rates as Likely Republican. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 85.5 percent implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$18,994 交易量
$18,994 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
86%
民主党
14%
$18,994 交易量
$18,994 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$14,269 交易量
86%
民主党
$4,725 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy faces Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district on November 3, 2026. Redistricting completed in October 2025 adjusted boundaries, reducing the district’s Republican tilt so that 2024 presidential results would have shown a 14-point Trump margin rather than a larger advantage. Murphy, seeking a fifth term, benefits from incumbency, substantial campaign reserves, and the absence of a competitive Republican primary. Smith prevailed in the March 2026 Democratic primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat that Cook Political Report rates as Likely Republican. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 85.5 percent implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$18,994结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy faces Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district on November 3, 2026. Redistricting completed in October 2025 adjusted boundaries, reducing the district’s Republican tilt so that 2024 presidential results would have shown a 14-point Trump margin rather than a larger advantage. Murphy, seeking a fifth term, benefits from incumbency, substantial campaign reserves, and the absence of a competitive Republican primary. Smith prevailed in the March 2026 Democratic primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat that Cook Political Report rates as Likely Republican. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 85.5 percent implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$18,994结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Greg Murphy faces Democratic nominee Raymond Smith Jr. in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district on November 3, 2026. Redistricting completed in October 2025 adjusted boundaries, reducing the district’s Republican tilt so that 2024 presidential results would have shown a 14-point Trump margin rather than a larger advantage. Murphy, seeking a fifth term, benefits from incumbency, substantial campaign reserves, and the absence of a competitive Republican primary. Smith prevailed in the March 2026 Democratic primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat that Cook Political Report rates as Likely Republican. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 85.5 percent implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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