Incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood's unopposed victory in the March 17 Illinois primary has reinforced her commanding position in the safely Democratic-leaning IL-14, a northern Illinois district encompassing Chicago suburbs and exurban areas with a Cook PVI of D+4. Traders price Democrats at 91% implied probability, driven by Underwood's consistent reelection margins—including a 2022 win over nominee James Marter by nine points—and strong incumbency advantages amid limited Republican momentum post-primary. No major developments have emerged in the past month, with fundraising and endorsements favoring the incumbent. Realistic challenges include a national GOP wave, Underwood scandal, or superior Marter turnout in battlegrounds, though historical base rates for such seats favor retention ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$439 거래량
92%
Republican Party
$2,781 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood's unopposed victory in the March 17 Illinois primary has reinforced her commanding position in the safely Democratic-leaning IL-14, a northern Illinois district encompassing Chicago suburbs and exurban areas with a Cook PVI of D+4. Traders price Democrats at 91% implied probability, driven by Underwood's consistent reelection margins—including a 2022 win over nominee James Marter by nine points—and strong incumbency advantages amid limited Republican momentum post-primary. No major developments have emerged in the past month, with fundraising and endorsements favoring the incumbent. Realistic challenges include a national GOP wave, Underwood scandal, or superior Marter turnout in battlegrounds, though historical base rates for such seats favor retention ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$3,220종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood's unopposed victory in the March 17 Illinois primary has reinforced her commanding position in the safely Democratic-leaning IL-14, a northern Illinois district encompassing Chicago suburbs and exurban areas with a Cook PVI of D+4. Traders price Democrats at 91% implied probability, driven by Underwood's consistent reelection margins—including a 2022 win over nominee James Marter by nine points—and strong incumbency advantages amid limited Republican momentum post-primary. No major developments have emerged in the past month, with fundraising and endorsements favoring the incumbent. Realistic challenges include a national GOP wave, Underwood scandal, or superior Marter turnout in battlegrounds, though historical base rates for such seats favor retention ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$3,220종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood's unopposed victory in the March 17 Illinois primary has reinforced her commanding position in the safely Democratic-leaning IL-14, a northern Illinois district encompassing Chicago suburbs and exurban areas with a Cook PVI of D+4. Traders price Democrats at 91% implied probability, driven by Underwood's consistent reelection margins—including a 2022 win over nominee James Marter by nine points—and strong incumbency advantages amid limited Republican momentum post-primary. No major developments have emerged in the past month, with fundraising and endorsements favoring the incumbent. Realistic challenges include a national GOP wave, Underwood scandal, or superior Marter turnout in battlegrounds, though historical base rates for such seats favor retention ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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