Incumbent Rep. Joaquin Castro's commanding 90% win in the March 3 Democratic primary solidified trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the TX-20 House general election on November 3, reflecting the district's solidly Democratic lean in San Antonio and Bexar County, bolstered by strong Hispanic voter support and incumbency advantages. Recent redistricting in 2025 preserved its blue profile, with no high-profile Republican nominee emerging from a low-key GOP primary to mount a credible challenge. While odds exceed 90%, a major scandal, health event for Castro, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could shift dynamics before early voting begins.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$4,715 거래량
93%
Republican Party
$1,987 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Joaquin Castro's commanding 90% win in the March 3 Democratic primary solidified trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the TX-20 House general election on November 3, reflecting the district's solidly Democratic lean in San Antonio and Bexar County, bolstered by strong Hispanic voter support and incumbency advantages. Recent redistricting in 2025 preserved its blue profile, with no high-profile Republican nominee emerging from a low-key GOP primary to mount a credible challenge. While odds exceed 90%, a major scandal, health event for Castro, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could shift dynamics before early voting begins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$6,702종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Joaquin Castro's commanding 90% win in the March 3 Democratic primary solidified trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the TX-20 House general election on November 3, reflecting the district's solidly Democratic lean in San Antonio and Bexar County, bolstered by strong Hispanic voter support and incumbency advantages. Recent redistricting in 2025 preserved its blue profile, with no high-profile Republican nominee emerging from a low-key GOP primary to mount a credible challenge. While odds exceed 90%, a major scandal, health event for Castro, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could shift dynamics before early voting begins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$6,702종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Joaquin Castro's commanding 90% win in the March 3 Democratic primary solidified trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the TX-20 House general election on November 3, reflecting the district's solidly Democratic lean in San Antonio and Bexar County, bolstered by strong Hispanic voter support and incumbency advantages. Recent redistricting in 2025 preserved its blue profile, with no high-profile Republican nominee emerging from a low-key GOP primary to mount a credible challenge. While odds exceed 90%, a major scandal, health event for Castro, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could shift dynamics before early voting begins.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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