Trader consensus on Polymarket shows a tight race among 32–35°C outcomes for Lagos' highest temperature on April 17, reflecting inherent uncertainty in short-range forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS amid variable convective activity. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) 2026 seasonal outlook predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures and above-average rainfall for Lagos, with early April already seeing highs up to 35°C on April 10 amid isolated thunderstorms. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover from sea breeze incursions and urban heat island effects boosting peaks, versus thunderstorm suppression; historical April averages hover at 32°C, rarely exceeding 34°C. New NiMet bulletins and model updates overnight could refine probabilities before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Lagos on April 17?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 17?
33°C 27%
35°C 26%
34°C 23%
32°C 17%
$19,595 交易量
$19,595 交易量
27°C or below
6%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
5%
32°C
18%
33°C
27%
34°C
23%
35°C
25%
36°C
8%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 27%
35°C 26%
34°C 23%
32°C 17%
$19,595 交易量
$19,595 交易量
27°C or below
6%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
5%
32°C
18%
33°C
27%
34°C
23%
35°C
25%
36°C
8%
37°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 15, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket shows a tight race among 32–35°C outcomes for Lagos' highest temperature on April 17, reflecting inherent uncertainty in short-range forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS amid variable convective activity. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) 2026 seasonal outlook predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures and above-average rainfall for Lagos, with early April already seeing highs up to 35°C on April 10 amid isolated thunderstorms. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover from sea breeze incursions and urban heat island effects boosting peaks, versus thunderstorm suppression; historical April averages hover at 32°C, rarely exceeding 34°C. New NiMet bulletins and model updates overnight could refine probabilities before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions