Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33.5% implied probability for a 15°C high in Paris on April 13, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 27.5%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mid-teens peaks amid a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over Western Europe for mild spring conditions. Key differentiating factors include variable cloudiness and a chance of afternoon showers, which could reduce insolation and cap diurnal heating at 14°C, versus clearer intervals allowing 15°C as seen in recent Météo-France guidance and BBC projections around 15°C. Baseline April highs average 15-16°C, but short-range uncertainty persists from mesoscale cloud evolution; watch tomorrow's 12Z model updates for refinement ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Paris on April 13?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 13?
15°C 34%
14°C 29%
16°C 17%
13°C 16%
10°C or below
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
5%
13°C
16%
14°C
29%
15°C
34%
16°C
17%
17°C
6%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
1%
15°C 34%
14°C 29%
16°C 17%
13°C 16%
10°C or below
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
5%
13°C
16%
14°C
29%
15°C
34%
16°C
17%
17°C
6%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33.5% implied probability for a 15°C high in Paris on April 13, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 27.5%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mid-teens peaks amid a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over Western Europe for mild spring conditions. Key differentiating factors include variable cloudiness and a chance of afternoon showers, which could reduce insolation and cap diurnal heating at 14°C, versus clearer intervals allowing 15°C as seen in recent Météo-France guidance and BBC projections around 15°C. Baseline April highs average 15-16°C, but short-range uncertainty persists from mesoscale cloud evolution; watch tomorrow's 12Z model updates for refinement ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions