Latest Météo-France guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Paris's highest temperature on April 12 clustering around 14°C, driving trader consensus with 44.5% implied probability for that outcome and 29.5% for 15°C, reflecting convergence on partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds limiting solar heating. This follows a mild early-week warm spell peaking near 25°C on April 9 amid high pressure, but recent runs show a cooling trend from an approaching weak frontal boundary increasing cloud cover and humidity, consistent with April's climatological mean high of 16°C yet prone to 3–5°C daily swings. Uncertainty persists in model spreads (13–16°C), with final updates expected overnight; resolution hinges on verified observations from official Paris stations like Montsouris.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4月12日巴黎最高溫度?
4月12日巴黎最高溫度?
14°C 40%
15°C 31%
16°C 18%
13°C 8%
$31,143 交易量
$31,143 交易量
8°C或以下
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
8%
14°C
40%
15°C
31%
16°C
18%
17°C
2%
18°C或以上
1%
14°C 40%
15°C 31%
16°C 18%
13°C 8%
$31,143 交易量
$31,143 交易量
8°C或以下
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
8%
14°C
40%
15°C
31%
16°C
18%
17°C
2%
18°C或以上
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 8, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest Météo-France guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Paris's highest temperature on April 12 clustering around 14°C, driving trader consensus with 44.5% implied probability for that outcome and 29.5% for 15°C, reflecting convergence on partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds limiting solar heating. This follows a mild early-week warm spell peaking near 25°C on April 9 amid high pressure, but recent runs show a cooling trend from an approaching weak frontal boundary increasing cloud cover and humidity, consistent with April's climatological mean high of 16°C yet prone to 3–5°C daily swings. Uncertainty persists in model spreads (13–16°C), with final updates expected overnight; resolution hinges on verified observations from official Paris stations like Montsouris.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions